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International credit supply shocks

Author

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  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio

    (Bank of England)

  • Ferrero, Andrea

    (University of Oxford)

  • Rebucci, Alessandro

    (John Hopkins University Carey Business School)

Abstract

House prices and exchange rates can potentially amplify the expansionary effect of capital inflows by inflating the value of collateral. We first set up a model of collateralized borrowing in domestic and foreign currency with international financial intermediation in which a change in leverage of global intermediaries leads to an international credit supply increase. In this environment, we illustrate how house price increases and exchange rates appreciations contribute to fuelling the boom by inflating the value of collateral. We then document empirically, in a Panel VAR model for 50 advanced and emerging countries estimated with quarterly data from 1985 to 2012, that an increase in the leverage of US Broker-Dealers also leads to an increase in cross-border credit flows, a house price and consumption boom, a real exchange rate appreciation and a current account deterioration consistent with the transmission in the model. Finally, we study the sensitivity of the consumption and asset price response to such a shock and show that country differences are associated with the level of the maximum loan-to-value ratio and the share of foreign currency denominated credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Ferrero, Andrea & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2017. "International credit supply shocks," Bank of England working papers 680, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0680
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cross-border claims; capital flows; credit supply shock; leverage; exchange rates; house prices; international financial intermediation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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