IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/23149.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya
  • Julian di Giovanni
  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
  • Mehmet Fatih Ulu

Abstract

We study the transmission of global financial uncertainty to an emerging market economy, Turkey, using data on the universe of corporate loan transactions over 2003-2013. International arbitrage implies that a decline in global uncertainty reduces country risk, which narrows the deviation from uncovered interest parity, and pushes capital flows into Turkey, allowing domestic banks to lend to firms at lower interest rates. This leads to a domestic credit expansion since local currency borrowing becomes cheaper. Our estimates explain 43% of observed credit growth, where bank heterogeneity in access to international markets explains 94% of this aggregate impact. We show that collateral- based borrowing constraints do not relax during capital flow surges, while borrowing becomes cheaper for all firms on average. We rule out various alternative mechanisms such as exchange rate appreciation driven balance-sheet effects. Our results highlight a new international spillover mechanism, which we call the “interest rate channel.”

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Julian di Giovanni & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu, 2017. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 23149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23149
    Note: EFG IFM ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23149.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    2. Gita Gopinath & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Loukas Karabarbounis & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2017. "Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1915-1967.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    7. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    9. Gabriel Jimenez & Steven Ongena & Jose-Luis Peydro & Jesus Saurina, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326, August.
    10. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    11. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2017. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 563-585, August.
    12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    13. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1995. " What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1421-1460, December.
    14. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2016. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake," NBER Working Papers 22335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    16. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    17. Eugenio M Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Damien Puy, 2015. "Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets; Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 15/127, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2015. "US Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," NBER Working Papers 21722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    20. Kurmaş AKDOĞAN & Burcu Deniz YILDIRIM, 2014. "Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and a Liquidity Stress Test Application on Turkish Banking System," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 29(338), pages 39-66.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    2. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Ferrero, Andrea & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2018. "International credit supply shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 219-237.
    3. Eugenio M Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 17/193, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gita Gopinath & Jeremy C. Stein, 2018. "Banking, Trade, and the making of a Dominant Currency," NBER Working Papers 24485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bräuning, Falk & Ivashina, Victoria, 2017. "U. S. monetary policy and emerging market credit cycles," Working Papers 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2017. "Systematic Managed Floating," Working Paper Series rwp17-025, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.