IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id10533.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rules of the Monetary Game

Author

Listed:
  • Prachi Mishra
  • Raghuram G. Rajan

Abstract

Aggressive monetary policy actions by one country can lead to significant adverse cross-border spillovers on others, especially as countries contend with the zero lower bound. If countries do not internalize these spillovers, they may undertake policies that are collectively suboptimal. Perhaps instead, countries could agree to guidelines for responsible behavior that would improve collective outcomes. This paper puts forward some of the practical issues that need to be considered in framing possible rules of the monetary game. We argue that policies could be broadly characterized and rated based on analytical inputs and discussion. Policies that generally have positive or domestic effects could be rated Green, policies that should be used temporarily and with care could be rated Orange, and policies that should be avoided at all times could be rated Red. We provide a brief review of the some of the frameworks that have been used in the literature to measure and analyze spillovers. We make the case that models may reflect the policy biases of those devising them, and may be at too early a stage to be able to draw strong conclusions from them. Therefore, while more empirical analysis should be undertaken, it should be seen as an input to a dialogue rather than definitive, with the analysis being refined as we understand outcomes better. The paper also discusses the specific role of the IMF in this context.

Suggested Citation

  • Prachi Mishra & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2016. "Rules of the Monetary Game," Working Papers id:10533, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:10533
    Note: Institutional Papers
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esocialsciences.org/Download/repecDownload.aspx?fname=A2016331131950_20.PDF&fcategory=Articles&AId=10533&fref=repec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2011. "Asymmetric Shocks in a Currency Union with Monetary and Fiscal Handcuffs," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 95-136.
    2. Haberis, Alex & Lipińska, Anna, 2012. "International policy spillovers at the zero lower bound," Bank of England working papers 464, Bank of England.
    3. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    4. Chen, Qianying & Filardo, Andrew & He, Dong & Zhu, Feng, 2016. "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-81.
    5. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2013. "Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2013/011, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    8. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: its Achilles heel and what to do about it," BIS Working Papers 456, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Ippei Fujiwara & Nao Sudo & Yuki Teranishi, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound and Monetary Policy in a Global Economy: A Simple Analytical Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 103-134, March.
    10. Boris Hofmann & Elod Takáts, 2015. "International monetary spillovers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    11. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh, 2013. "Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/11, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    13. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2017. "The effects of foreign shocks when interest rates are at zero," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 660-684, August.
    14. Robert C. Feenstra & Gary G. Hamilton & Eun Mie Lim, 2002. "Chaebol and Catastrophe: A New View of the Korean Business Groups and Their Role in the Financial Crisis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45.
    15. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gagan Deep Sharma & Mandeep Mahendru & Mrinalini Srivastava, 2019. "Can Central Banking Policies Make a Difference in Financial Market Performance in Emerging Economies? The Case of India," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Andrea Goldstein & Alessia Amighini & Jeffry A. Frieden, 2016. "Macroeconomic Rebalancing in China and the G20," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(4), pages 15-33, July.
    3. John B. Taylor, 2021. "Simple monetary rules: many strengths and few weaknesses," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 267-283, December.
    4. Hsu, Feng-Jui & Chen, Sheng-Hung, 2021. "US quantitative easing and firm’s default risk: The role of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 650-664.
    5. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2022. "Financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 79-127, February.
    6. Bilal Bagis, 2017. "Central Banking in the New Era," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 197-225.
    7. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 3-28, Summer.
    9. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles [Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    10. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 27615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kolasa, Marcin & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2020. "International spillovers of quantitative easing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Anindya S. Chakrabarti & Sudarshan Kumar, 2020. "A computational algorithm to analyze unobserved sequential reactions of the central banks: inference on complex lead–lag relationship in evolution of policy stances," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 33-54, April.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld, 2021. "Globalization and nationalism: Retrospect and prospect," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 675-690, October.
    14. Ernest Gnan & Claudia Kwapil & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2018. "Monetary policy after the crisis: mandates, targets, and international linkages," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 8-33.
    15. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Harry Johnson's “Case for flexible exchange rates”—50 years later," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 86-113, September.
    16. Pami Dua & Ritu Suri, 2019. "Interlinkages Between USD–INR, EUR–INR, GBP–INR and JPY–INR Exchange Rate Markets and the Impact of RBI Intervention," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1_suppl), pages 102-136, April.
    17. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    18. Arestis, Philip & Phelps, Peter, 2017. "Financial market implications of monetary policy coincidences: Evidence from the UK and Euro Area government-bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 88-102.
    19. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2019. "Global Banking, Financial Spillovers, and Macroprudential Policy Coordination," BIS Working Papers 764, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    21. Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Working Paper Series 2482, European Central Bank.
    22. Chakrabarti, Anindya S. & Kumar, Sudarshan, 2019. "A computational algorithm to analyze unobserved sequential reactions of the central banks: Inference on complex lead-lag relationship in evolution of policy stances," IIMA Working Papers WP 2019-06-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    2. Chen, Qianying & Filardo, Andrew & He, Dong & Zhu, Feng, 2016. "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-81.
    3. Qianying Chen & Marco Lombardi & Alex Ross & Feng Zhu, 2017. "Global impact of US and euro area unconventional monetary policies: a comparison," BIS Working Papers 610, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Wei, Honghong & Lahiri, Radhika, 2019. "The impact of commodity price shocks in the presence of a trading relationship: A GVAR analysis of the NAFTA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 553-569.
    6. Mr. Giovanni Ganelli & Nour Tawk, 2016. "Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: a Global VAR approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/099, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "The global effects of productivity gains in Asian emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 127-140.
    8. Dovern, Jonas & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "Does joint modelling of the world economy pay off? Evaluating global forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 86-100.
    9. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Morten Rasmussen & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-44, June.
    10. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: A counterfactual analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 382-399.
    11. Chudik, Alexander & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2021. "A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    12. Mr. Vladimir Klyuev & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Mehdi Raissi & Rui Mano & Allan Dizioli, 2016. "Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies," IMF Working Papers 2016/170, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2017. "Oil prices and the global economy: Is it different this time around?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 315-325.
    14. Britta Niehof, 2014. "Spillover Effects in Government Bond Spreads: Evidence from a GVAR Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201458, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Hajek, Jan & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 91-105.
    16. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Mignon, Valérie & Sallenave, Audrey, 2015. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
    17. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "How Does Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect the Global Financial Markets?: Evaluating Policy Effects by Global VAR Models," Discussion papers 19031, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "International macroeconomic dynamics: A factor vector autoregressive approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 432-444, March.
    19. Zubarev, A. & Rybak, K., 2022. "The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 48-68.
    20. Taya Dumrongrittikul & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2014. "The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Perspective," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:10533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.esocialsciences.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Padma Prakash (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.esocialsciences.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.