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The effectiveness of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy: New evidence based on international interest rate differentials

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  • Belke, Angar
  • Gros, Daniel
  • Osowski, Thomas

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of non-standard monetary policies on international yield relationships. We first document that long-term rates followed a common global downward trend that had already manifested itself prior to the financial crisis. The bond-buying operations (commonly dubbed Quantitative Easing (QE)) of the US Federal Reserve did not disturb this global co-movement – i.e. the global downward trend in interest rates. We model the relationship between USD and euro (riskless) long-term interest rates using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model (CVAR) employing recursive estimation methods. We find no evidence that QE1 (or the QE episodes) destabilized the transatlantic interest-rate relationship, nor the relationship between interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate. A robustness test using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) with interest rates, inflation rates and output differentials for 11 countries (relative to US) yielded the same result. There is thus little evidence that central bank bond-buying in the US had an independent, distinct impact on US interest rates.

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  • Belke, Angar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2017. "The effectiveness of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy: New evidence based on international interest rate differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 335-349.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:73:y:2017:i:pb:p:335-349
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.011
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    3. Belke, Ansgar & Volz, Ulrich, 2018. "Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies: global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors," Discussion Papers 23/2018, German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE).
    4. Kpughur Moses Tule & Osana Jackson Odonye & Udoma Johnson Afangideh & Godday Uwawunkonye Ebuh & Elijah Abasifreke Paul Udoh & Augustine Ujunwa, 2019. "Assessing the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy normalization on Nigeria sovereign bond yield," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Dana Kiseľáková & Paulina Filip & Erika Onuferová & Tomáš Valentiny, 2020. "The Impact of Monetary Policies on the Sustainable Economic and Financial Development in the Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Belke, Ansgar, 2018. "The Effectiveness of the Fed?s Quantitative Easing Policy - A Survey of the Econometrics/La efectividad de expansión cuantitativa de la Fed. Una panorámica econométrica," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 291-308, Enero.
    7. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
    8. Belke Ansgar & Dreger Christian, 2019. "Did Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound Affect Lending of Commercial Banks? Evidence for the Euro Area," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 841-860, October.
    9. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2018. "The Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures of the ECB: Motivations, Effectiveness and Risks," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 51(4), pages 513-560.
    10. Muhammad Ali Rizwan & Muhammad Zeeshan Younas & Hafiza Sadaf Zahra & Zartaj Jamil, 2020. "External Monetary Constraints Imposed by Developed Economies on Developing Economies: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 7-29, March.
    11. Saeidinezhad, Elham & Hovhannisyan, Tatev, 2019. "Can the Hybridity of Law and Finance Save Central Banking in a Zero-Lower Bound Recession? A Money and Legal View," MPRA Paper 97719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2021. "QE in the euro area: Has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2019. "QE in the euro area: Has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?," Ruhr Economic Papers 803, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. José Carlos Vides & Antonio A. Golpe & Jesús Iglesias, 2018. "How did the Sovereign debt crisis affect the Euro financial integration? A fractional cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 685-706, November.
    15. Bank for International Settlements, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 63.
    16. Christian Dreger & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2019. "Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 599-615, October.
    17. Justinas Lubys & Pradiptarathi Panda, 2021. "US and EU unconventional monetary policy spillover on BRICS financial markets: an event study," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 353-371, May.
    18. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 837, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    19. Beck, Roland & Duca, Ioana A. & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Medium term treatment and side effects of quantitative easing: international evidence," Working Paper Series 2229, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantitative easing; Unconventional monetary policies; Time series econometrics; Cointegrated VAR; Recursive methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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