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Term Structure Modeling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Progarms

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  • Canlin Li

    (Division of Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

  • Min Wei

    (Division of Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

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Abstract

This paper estimates an arbitrage-free term structure model with both observable yield factors and Treasury and agency MBS supply factors, and uses it to evaluate the term premium effects of the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase programs. Our estimates show that the first and second large-scale asset purchase programs and the maturity extension program jointly reduced the ten-year Treasury yield by about 100 basis points.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 9 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 3-39

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2013:q:1:a:1

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
  • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
  • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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  1. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eric T. Swanson, 2011. "Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 151-207.
  3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
  4. Jack Meaning & Feng Zhu, 2011. "The impact of recent central bank asset purchase programmes," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  5. Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2014. "QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Williams, John C., 2013. "A defense of moderation in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 137-150.
  3. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2013. "The impact of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase programs on corporate credit risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Gilchrist, Simon & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Meixing Dai & Frédéric Dufourt & Qiao Zhang, 2013. "Large Scale Asset Purchases with segmented mortgage and corporate loan markets," Working Papers of BETA 2013-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  6. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2013. "The ins and outs of LSAPs," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2014. "On the (de)Stabilizing Effect of Public Debt In a Ramsey Model with Heterogeneous Agents," Discussion Paper Series DP2014-03, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  8. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2014. "Swiss unconventional monetary policy: lessons for the transmission of quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2013. "Estimating Term Premia at the Zero Bound: An Analysis of Japanese, US, and UK Yields," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-8, Bank of Japan.

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