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Term structure modelling with supply factors and the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase programs

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Abstract

This paper proposes and estimates an arbitrage-free term structure model with both observable yield factors and Treasury and Agency MBS supply factors, and applies it to evaluate the term premium effects of Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase programs. Our estimates show that the first and the second large-scale asset purchase programs and the Maturity Extension program have a combined effect of about 100 basis points on the 10-year Treasury yield.

Suggested Citation

  • Canlin Li & Min Wei, 2012. "Term structure modelling with supply factors and the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase programs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-37
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    1. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D'Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Jeff W. Huther & Jane E. Ihrig & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2017. "The Federal Reserve's Portfolio and its Effect on Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Juan Carlos Medina Guirado, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and credit market activity," Estudios Regionales en Economía, Población y Desarrollo. Cuadernos de Trabajo de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez. 57, Cuerpo Académico 41 de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez, revised 04 Jan 2020.
    4. Paul Glasserman & Amit Sirohi & Allen Zhang, 2017. "The effect of “regular and predictable” issuance on Treasury bill financing," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-1, pages 43-56.
    5. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    6. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2012. "Qualitative Easing: How it Works and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 18421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Thomas B. King, 2013. "A Portfolio-Balance Approach to the Nominal Term Structure," Working Paper Series WP-2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2014/066, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bluford H. Putnam, 2013. "Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 1-7, January.
    10. Saroj Bhattarai & Christopher J. Neely, 2022. "An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 527-597, June.
    11. Jarrow, Robert A., 2013. "The zero-lower bound on interest rates: Myth or reality?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 151-156.
    12. Franck Martin & Jiangxingyun Zhang, 2017. "Impact of QE on European sovereign bond market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2017-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    13. Kiley, Michael T., 2016. "Monetary policy statements, treasury yields, and private yields: Before and after the zero lower bound," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 285-290.
    14. Wiliiam Arrata & Benoit Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
    15. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    16. Putnam, Bluford H., 2013. "Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-7.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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