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Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE

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  • Blattner, Tobias Sebastian
  • Joyce, Michael A. S.

Abstract

This paper examines how shocks to the net supply of government bonds affect the euro area term structure of interest rates and the wider macroeconomy. To measure net debt supply we construct a new free-float measure, which adjusts total government debt of the four largest euro area economies for foreign official holdings and the maturity of the outstanding stock of debt. Using a small macro-finance BVAR model, we estimate that the ECB JEL Classification: C5, E4, E5, G1

Suggested Citation

  • Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161957
    Note: 339021
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    Cited by:

    1. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2020. "Quantitative easing in the Euro Area – An event study approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-36.
    2. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Burlon, Lorenzo & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of an open-ended asset purchase programme," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1144-1159.
    4. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    5. Andrejs Zlobins, 2019. "Country-Level Effects of the ECB's Expanded Asset Purchase Programme," Working Papers 2019/02, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Lorenzo Burlon & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2017. "Public investment and monetary policy stance in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1150, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Blattner Tobias S. & Swarbrick Jonathan M., 2021. "Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 323-368, January.
    8. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2017. "Macroeconomic effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy and early exit. A model-based evaluation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 155-173, June.
    9. Andreas Beyer & Benoît Coeuré & Caterina Mendicino, 2017. "Foreword – The crisis, ten years after: Lessons learnt for monetary and financial research," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 45-64.
    10. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
    11. A. Bartocci & L. Burlon & A. Notarpietro & M. Pisani, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures in the Euro Area: The Role of Corporate Bond Purchases," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 97-130, September.
    12. Francesco Giuseppe Cordoni & Luca Di Persio & Yilun Jiang, 2020. "A Bank Salvage Model by Impulse Stochastic Controls," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(2), pages 1-31, June.
    13. Francesco Cordoni & Luca Di Persio & Yilun Jiang, 2019. "A bank salvage model by impulse stochastic controls," Papers 1910.03056, arXiv.org.
    14. Demiralp, Selva & Eisenschmidt, Jens & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Negative interest rates, excess liquidity and retail deposits: Banks’ reaction to unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Benoît Cœuré, 2017. "Central Bank Communication in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 813-822, November.
    16. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2020. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    17. Andrejs Zlobins, 2020. "Country-level effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 187-217.
    18. van Riet, Ad, 2017. "Addressing the safety trilemma: a safe sovereign asset for the eurozone," ESRB Working Paper Series 35, European Systemic Risk Board.
    19. Florian Urbschat & Sebastian Watzka, 2017. "Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area - An Event Study Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 6709, CESifo.
    20. Loriana Pelizzon & Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Reiko Tobe & Jun Uno, 2018. "Scarcity and Spotlight Effects on Liquidity and Yield: Quantitative Easing in Japan," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    21. De Santis, Roberto A. & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric, 2017. "Flow effects of central bank asset purchases on euro area sovereign bond yields: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 2052, European Central Bank.
    22. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB; government debt; macroeconomy; quantitative easing; term structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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