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Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates

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  • Iryna Kaminska
  • Gabriele Zinna

Abstract

By constructing and estimating a structural arbitrage-free model of demand pressures on US real rates, we find that recent purchases of US government debt securities by the Fed and foreign officials have significantly affected the level and the dynamics of US real rates. In particular, by 2008, foreign purchases of US Treasuries are estimated to have had cumulatively reduced long term real yields by around 80 basis points. The subsequent total impact of Fed purchases in 2008-2012 has been even larger: the quantitative easing (QE) has depressed real 10-year yields by around 140 basis points. Our findings also reveal that the Fed policy interventions and foreign official purchases affect longer term real bonds mostly through a reduction in the bond premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2014/066, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iryna Kaminska & Dimitri Vayanos & Gabriele Zinna, 2011. "Preferred-Habitat Investors and the US Term Structure of Real Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp674, Financial Markets Group.
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    1. Mirco Rubin & Dario Ruzzi, 2020. "Equity Tail Risk in the Treasury Bond Market," Papers 2007.05933, arXiv.org.
    2. Cohen, Benjamin J., 2015. "The Demise of the Dollar?," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 18.
    3. Jesus Sierra, 2014. "International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-36.
    4. Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
    5. Francois John Nana, 2020. "Foreign official holdings of US treasuries, stock effect and the economy: a DSGE approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, January.
    6. Giuseppe Grande & Sergio Masciantonio & Andrea Tiseno, 2014. "The interest-rate sensitivity of the demand for sovereign debt. Evidence from OECD countries (1995-2011)," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 988, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Seghezza, Elena & Morelli, Pierluigi, 2018. "Rule of law and balance of power sustain US dollar preeminence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 16-36.
    8. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "Die Entwicklung der Langfristzinsen in den USA und das "Quantitative Easing" der FED," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 40, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).

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