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Expectation and duration at the effective lower bound

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  • King, Thomas B.

Abstract

With risk-averse arbitrageurs and an effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal rates, nonlinear interactions among short-rate expectations, bond supply, and term premia emerge in equilibrium. These interactions, which are absent from affine models, help explain the observed behavior of the yield curve near the ELB, including evidence about unconventional monetary policy. The impact of both short-rate expectations and bond supply are attenuated at the ELB. However, in simulations of the post-crisis experience in the U.S., shocks to investors’ duration-risk exposures have much smaller effects than shocks to the anticipated path of short rates. The latter shocks matter, in part, because of the reduction in interest-rate volatility associated with a longer expected stay at the ELB—a novel channel of unconventional policy.

Suggested Citation

  • King, Thomas B., 2019. "Expectation and duration at the effective lower bound," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 736-760.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:134:y:2019:i:3:p:736-760
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.05.009
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    1. Bailey, Andrew & Bridges, Jonathan & Harrison, Richard & Jones, Josh & Mankodi, Aakash, 2020. "The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future," Bank of England working papers 899, Bank of England.
    2. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2023. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 31879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Shuo Cao & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2020. "Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff Reports 934, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.
    5. Bundick, Brent & Herriford, Trenton & Smith, A. Lee, 2024. "The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    8. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    9. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Don H. Kim & Marcel A. Priebsch, 2020. "Are Shadow Rate Models of the Treasury Yield Curve Structurally Stable?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Junko Koeda & Yoichi Ueno, 2022. "A Preferred Habitat View of Yield Curve Control," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    12. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    13. Giuseppe Grande & Adriana Grasso & Gabriele Zinna, 2019. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s asset purchases at the lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 541, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Equiza, Juan & Gimeno, Ricardo & Moreno, Antonio & Thomas, Carlos, 2024. "Evaluating the yield curve effects of central bank asset purchases under a forward-looking supply factor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure; Portfolio balance; ZLB; Quantitative easing; Forward guidance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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