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Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound (this is a revised version of CAMA working paper 36/2011)

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  • Leo Krippner

Abstract

The world’s two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to non-workers, rather than the number of working aged to non-working aged. While much of China?s demographic dividend now lies in the past, alternative assumptions about future trends in fertility and labor force participation rates are used to demonstrate that China will not necessarily enter a period of “demographic taxation” for at least another decade, if not longer. In contrast with China, much of India?s potential demographic dividend lies in waiting for the decades ahead, with the extent and duration depending critically on a range of policy choices.

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  • Leo Krippner, 2012. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound (this is a revised version of CAMA working paper 36/2011)," CAMA Working Papers 2012-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-05
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-06/5_krippner_2012.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leo Krippner, 2010. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models, and an empirical application to U.S. yield curve dynamics," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 33-64, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. King, Thomas B., 2019. "Expectation and duration at the effective lower bound," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 736-760.
    2. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2016. "The response of euro area sovereign spreads to the ECB unconventional monetary policies," Working Paper Research 309, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Mira Farka, 2022. "The credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound: Evidence from the US equity market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 633-693, September.
    4. Mohsan Bilal, 2017. "Zeroing in: Asset Pricing at the Zero Lower Bound," 2017 Meeting Papers 377, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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