IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/cnb/ocpubc/fsr1617-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Decomposition of the Czech government bond yield curve

In: CNB Financial Stability Report 2016/2017

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Kucera
  • Michal Dvorak
  • Zlatuse Komarkova

Abstract

The term structure of yields is an important source of information on market expectations about future macroeconomic developments and investors' risk perceptions and preferences. This article presents the methodology used by the CNB to obtain such information. It describes the decomposition of the Czech government bond yield curve into its components. The evolution of those components is interpreted in relation to the macro-financial environment. The practical use of the method in the financial sector stress tests conducted by the CNB is then presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Kucera & Michal Dvorak & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2017. "Decomposition of the Czech government bond yield curve," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2016/2017, chapter 0, pages 125-134, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1617/3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/financial-stability/.galleries/fs_reports/fsr_2016-2017/fsr_2016-2017_article_iii.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/en/financial-stability/thematic-articles-on-financial-stability/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    2. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    3. Mr. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994," IMF Working Papers 1994/114, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Moench, Emanuel, 2008. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 26-43, September.
    5. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    6. František Brazdik & Michal Hlavacek & Aleš Marsal, 2012. "Survey of Research on Financial Sector Modeling within DSGE Models: What Central Banks Can Learn from It," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 252-277, July.
    7. Michal Dvorák & Zlatuše Komárková & Adam Kucera, 2019. "The Czech Government Yield Curve Decomposition at the Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 2-36, February.
    8. Zlatuse Komarkova & Jitka Lesanovska & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 5-24, March.
    9. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    10. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    11. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    12. Scott Joslin & Kenneth J. Singleton & Haoxiang Zhu, 2011. "A New Perspective on Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 926-970.
    13. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Black, Fischer, 1995. "Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-1376, December.
    15. Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009. "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2009/2, Czech National Bank.
    16. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    17. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    18. Livingston, Miles B & Jain, Suresh K, 1982. "Flattening of Bond Yield Curves for Long Maturities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 157-167, March.
    19. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    20. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    21. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    23. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    24. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
    25. Jose Peydro Alcalde & Sona Benecka & Alexis Derviz & Adam Gersl & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Dorota Kowalczyk & Ivana Kubicova & Steven Ongena & Jakub Ry, 2012. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 10, number rb10/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, June.
    26. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    27. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A tractable framework for zero lower bound Gaussian term structure models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    28. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michal Dvorák & Zlatuše Komárková & Adam Kucera, 2019. "The Czech Government Yield Curve Decomposition at the Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 2-36, February.
    2. Martina Makarieva, 2021. "Yield curve modelling and forecasting in an undeveloped financial market: The case of Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 61-83,84-10.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christensen, Bent Jesper & van der Wel, Michel, 2019. "An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 165-191.
    2. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    3. repec:erh:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:78-100 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Siem Jan Koopman & Max I.P. Mallee & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-095/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Rui Chen & Jiri Svec & Maurice Peat, 2016. "Forecasting the Government Bond Term Structure in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 99-111, June.
    6. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
    7. Li, Haitao & Ye, Xiaoxia & Yu, Fan, 2020. "Unifying Gaussian dynamic term structure models from a Heath–Jarrow–Morton perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1153-1167.
    8. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2012. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2988-3007.
    9. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    10. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2021. "No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, August.
    11. repec:zbw:cfswop:wp200903 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    13. Wali Ullah, 2017. "Term structure forecasting in affine framework with time-varying volatility," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 26(3), pages 453-483, August.
    14. Michiel de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," Working Paper 2010/01, Norges Bank.
    15. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    16. Engle, Robert & Roussellet, Guillaume & Siriwardane, Emil, 2017. "Scenario generation for long run interest rate risk assessment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 333-347.
    17. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    18. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    19. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    20. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    21. repec:zbw:cfswop:wp200409 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    23. Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2018. "A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 140-150.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1617/3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Babecky (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.