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Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic

In this article we discuss the credit default swap (CDS) as an indicator for measuring sovereign credit risk and the relationship between the sovereign CDS market and government bond market. We analyze the links between the sovereign CDS and sovereign yield spread and try to determine which of these markets is the leading one in the price discovery process in the case of the Czech Republic. We then apply quantile analysis to sovereign CDS spreads to demonstrate the cross-country spillover effects. The results of the first analysis suggest that movements in the Czech sovereign CDS spread preceded movements in the sovereign yield spread during the global crisis. The results of the second analysis indicate that the shock arising from the current debt crisis was transmitted to the Czech sovereign credit premium, although the fundamental or market factors driving its level dominated. The results of the Czech case are compared to selected European countries with different sovereign risks.

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Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 63 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 5-24

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:63:y:2013:i:1:p:5-24
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  1. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," AQR Working Papers 201209, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2012.
  2. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Gex, Mathieu & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 481-497.
  3. D. Filiz Unsal & Carlos Caceres, 2011. "Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia," IMF Working Papers 11/134, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  5. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2013. "The Interactions between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 492-505, 08.
  6. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2010. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Working Paper Series 1271, European Central Bank.
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