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Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic

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Abstract

In this article we discuss the credit default swap (CDS) as an indicator for measuring sovereign credit risk and the relationship between the sovereign CDS market and government bond market. We analyze the links between the sovereign CDS and sovereign yield spread and try to determine which of these markets is the leading one in the price discovery process in the case of the Czech Republic. We then apply quantile analysis to sovereign CDS spreads to demonstrate the cross-country spillover effects. The results of the first analysis suggest that movements in the Czech sovereign CDS spread preceded movements in the sovereign yield spread during the global crisis. The results of the second analysis indicate that the shock arising from the current debt crisis was transmitted to the Czech sovereign credit premium, although the fundamental or market factors driving its level dominated. The results of the Czech case are compared to selected European countries with different sovereign risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Zlatuse Komarkova & Jitka Lesanovska & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 5-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:63:y:2013:i:1:p:5-24
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    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1263_5-24---komarkova4.5.ak.pdf
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    1. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Gex, Mathieu & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 481-497.
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    4. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    5. Constancio, V., 2012. "Contagion and the European debt crisis," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 109-121, April.
    6. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    7. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2008. "A Markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1970-1983, September.
    8. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2013. "The Interactions between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 492-505, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Agata Kliber, 2014. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Evolution of the Financial Crisis in Selected Central European Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 330-350, September.
    2. Frantisek Brazdik & Jan Bruha & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Zuzana Humplova & Frantisek Kopriva & Jiri Polansky & Marek Rusnak & Jaromir Tonner, 2015. "Forecasting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 13, number rb13/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, March.
    3. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, March.
    4. Michal Dvorák & Zlatuše Komárková & Adam Kucera, 2019. "The Czech Government Yield Curve Decomposition at the Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 2-36, February.
    5. Kliber, Agata & Płuciennik, Piotr, 2017. "Euro or not? Vulnerability of Czech and Slovak economies to regional and international turmoil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-323.
    6. Michal Andrle & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jaromir Baxa & Jan Bruha & Peter Claeys & Jan Filacek & Jakub Mateju & Miroslav Plasil & Serhat Solmaz & Borek Vasicek, 2015. "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Low-Inflation Environment," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 13, number rb13/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion; sovereign risk; CDS;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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