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The Interactions Between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil

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  • Virginie Coudert
  • Mathieu Gex

Abstract

We analyse the links between credit default swap (CDS) and bond spreads and try to determine which one is the leading market in the price discovery process. To do that, we construct a sample of CDS premia and bonds spreads on a generic 5-year bond, for 17 financials and 18 sovereigns. First, we run VECM estimations, showing that the CDS market has a lead over the bond market over the whole sample. A decomposition of the sample shows that this result holds for financials as well as for the high-yield emerging sovereigns. However, the bond market still drives the CDS market for the sovereigns in the core of the euro area. Second, we check for non-linearities in the adjustment process during the current crisis. Results show that the CDS market's lead has been amplified by the crisis for financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2011. "The Interactions Between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil," Working Papers 2011-02, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign debt markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "Is Thailand’s credit default swap market linked to bond and stock markets? Evidence from the term structure of credit spreads," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 324-341.
    4. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Portfolio benefits of adding corporate credit default swap indices: evidence from North America and Europe," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 203-259, July.
    5. Mikhail Stolbov & Alexander Karminsky & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Lead Systemic Risk? A Comparative Analysis of Selected European Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(3), pages 332-360, September.
    6. Zlatuse Komarkova & Jitka Lesanovska & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 5-24, March.
    7. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    8. Niels C. Thygesen & Robert N. McCauley & Guonan Ma & William R. White & Jakob de Haan & Willem van den End & Jon Frost & Christiaan Pattipeilohy & Mostafa Tabbae & Ernest Gnan & Morten Balling & Paul , 2013. "50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume - 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 1 edited by Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan.
    9. Zubair Ali Raja & William J. Procasky & Renee Oyotode-Adebile, 2020. "The Relative Role of Sovereign CDS and Bond Markets in Efficiently Pricing Emerging Market Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(3), pages 296-325, December.
    10. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti & Dorra Mezzez Hmaied, 2019. "International risk spillover in the sovereign credit markets: An empirical analysis," Post-Print hal-01652526, HAL.
    11. Ka Kei Chan & Ming‐Tsung Lin & Qinye Lu, 2024. "Corporate credit default swap systematic factors," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1224-1256, July.
    12. William Arrata & Alejandro Bernales & Virginie Coudert, 2013. "The Effects of Derivatives on Underlying Financial Markets: Equity Options, Commodity Derivatives and Credit Default Swaps," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 13, pages 445-473, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    13. Takayasu Ito, 2016. "The behaviour of sovereign CDS and government bond in the Euro zone crisis," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 102-114.
    14. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti & Dorra Hmaied, 2017. "International risk spillover in the sovereign credit markets: An empirical analysis," Working Papers hal-01652526, HAL.
    15. Nicoló Andrea Caserini & Paolo Pagnottoni, 2022. "Effective transfer entropy to measure information flows in credit markets," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(4), pages 729-757, October.
    16. Veronika Kajurova & Jana Hvozdenska, 2016. "Linkages between CDS, bond and stock markets: Evidence from Europe," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-63, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    17. Marta Gómez-Puig & Mary Pieterse-Bloem & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in EMU sovereign debt markets"," IREA Working Papers 202217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    18. C. Emre Alper & Lorenzo Forni & Marc Gerard, 2013. "Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk: Evidence from Advanced Economies during the Financial Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 161-188, June.
    19. Agata Kliber, 2013. "Influence of the Greek Crisis on the Risk Perception of European Economies," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(2), pages 125-161, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Credit default swaps; Bonds; Price discovery process;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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