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Influence of the Greek Crisis on the Risk Perception of European Economies

Author

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  • Agata Kliber

    () (Poznan University of Economics)

Abstract

In the article the author analyses the impact of the Financial Crisis, especially the Greek fiscal one, on the sCDS prices in Europe. The aim of the article is to assess the ability of the sCDS premia to price the risk of countries before and during the Greek crisis. The author analyses sCDS premia of maturity 10 years together with the so called bond-spreads, i.e. the spreads between the countries’ bond indexes and the risk free rate of the region (in our case it was the yield of German bonds of corresponding maturity - 10 years). The idea was to check whether there occurred any discrepancies in the risk valuation via the two measures, as a consequence of the Greek crisis. The data is taken daily and covers the period of 2008-2012. Based upon the results obtained in the research we conclude that the Greek crisis indeed influenced the relationships between the two measures of risk, however the degree of the influence was different in different countries. The relationships between the two measures of risk were totally broken only in the case of Greece, while in the other countries the relationships either were not distorted or had been broken already at the beginning of the financial crisis (2008/2009). The Greek problems were indeed reflected in volatilities of all analysed instruments; however triggering the credit event affected only Greek bonds dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Agata Kliber, 2013. "Influence of the Greek Crisis on the Risk Perception of European Economies," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(2), pages 125-161, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:125-161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kliber Agata, 2016. "Impact Of The Ban On Uncovered SCDS Trade On the Interdependencies Between The CDS Market And Other Sectors Of Financial Markets. The Case Of Safe And Developed Versus Risky And Developing European Ma," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 77-99, March.
    2. Agata Kliber, 2014. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Evolution of the Financial Crisis in Selected Central European Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 330-350, September.
    3. Agata Kliber & Barbara Bedowska-Sojka, 2013. "Economic Situation of the Country or Risk in the World Financial Market? The Dynamics of Polish Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 13, pages 87-106.
    4. Kliber, Agata & Płuciennik, Piotr, 2017. "Euro or not? Vulnerability of Czech and Slovak economies to regional and international turmoil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-323.
    5. Agata Kliber, 2016. "The leverage effect puzzle: the case of European sovereign credit default swap market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 217-235, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS; bond spread; Markov-switching models; GARCH models; volatility; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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