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Euro or not? Vulnerability of Czech and Slovak economies to regional and international turmoil

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  • Kliber, Agata
  • Płuciennik, Piotr

Abstract

The paper compares vulnerability to crises of the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which had operated as Czechoslovakia prior to 1993. In 2009, Slovakia adopted the euro, while the Czech Republic retained its koruna. The main research question is if the introduction of the euro made Slovakia more vulnerable to pan-European crisis. The paper concentrates on two episodes: the Greek (pan-European) and Hungarian (regional) turmoil. The level of the country risk is measured through volatility of bond-spreads. From DCC-copula model the authors derive time-varying probability of crisis transmission and dynamic correlations. The main findings of the paper are: (i) Euro adoption did not make Slovakia more vulnerable to the pan-European problems. (ii) The country is still identified by investors as an emerging Central-European region, rather than a country of the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Kliber, Agata & Płuciennik, Piotr, 2017. "Euro or not? Vulnerability of Czech and Slovak economies to regional and international turmoil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-323.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:313-323
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    C32; C51; G01; G15; Bond spread; Copula-GARCH; Debt crisis; Central Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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