Exchange rate regime, real misalignment and currency crises
Based on 69 sample countries, this paper examines the effect of macroeconomic fundamentals on real effective exchange rates (REER) in these sample countries. Using the misalignment of actual REER from its equilibrium level, we have estimated the factors explaining the extent of currency over- or under-valuation. Overall, we find that the higher the flexibility of the currency regime, the lower is the misalignment. The estimates are robust to different sub-samples of countries. We then explore the impact of such misalignment on the probability of a currency crisis in the next period, indicating the extent to which misalignment could be used as a leading indicator of a potential crisis. This paper thus makes a new contribution to the debate on the choice of exchange rate regime by bringing together real exchange rate misalignment and currency crisis literature.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003.
"Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
- Menzie David Chinn & Eswar Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries; An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 00/46, International Monetary Fund.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2002.
"The Great Exchange Rate Debate after Argentina,"
74, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Edwards, Sebastian, 2002. "The great exchange rate debate after Argentina," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 237-252, December.
- Peter J. Montiel & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1994. "The Parallel Market Premium: Is It a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(1), pages 55-75, March.
- C. Couharde & J. Mazier, 2001. "The equilibrium exchange rates of European currencies and the transition to euro," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(14), pages 1795-1801.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
- Pedroni, Peter, 1999.
" Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
- Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1996.
"The Aftermath of Appreciations,"
NBER Working Papers
5650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2002.
"The Real Exchange Rate Always Floats,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Richter, Christian, 2004. "Estimating an equilibrium exchange rate for the dollar and other key currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1117-1144, December.
- Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
- Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2008. "Exploring different views of exchange rate regime choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1177-1197, November.
- Luca Antonio Ricci & Jaewoo Lee & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008.
"Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals; A Cross-Country Perspective,"
IMF Working Papers
08/13, International Monetary Fund.
- Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian Maria Milesi‐Ferretti & Jaewoo Lee, 2013. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross‐Country Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 845-865, 08.
- Hoffmann, Mathias, 2005.
"Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Evidence from developing countries,"
CFR Working Papers
05-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Mathias Hoffmann, 2007. "Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(295), pages 425-449, 08.
- Hoffmann, Mathias, 2003. "Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing Countries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 109, Royal Economic Society.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems,"
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- International Monetary Fund, 2001.
"Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries,"
IMF Working Papers
01/56, International Monetary Fund.
- De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
- Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Rodrigo O. ValdÃ©s & Ilan Goldfajn, 1997.
"Are Currency Crises Predictable?,"
IMF Working Papers
97/159, International Monetary Fund.
- Melvin, Michael, 1985. "The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 467-78, November.
- Jesus Otero, 1999. "The real exchange rate in Colombia: an analysis using multivariate cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 661-671.
- Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002.
"Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 5.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philipp Harms & Marco Kretschmann, 2009.
"Words, Deeds And Outcomes: A Survey On The Growth Effects Of Exchange Rate Regimes,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 139-164, 02.
- Philipp Harms & Marco Kretschmann, 2007. "Words, deeds, and outcomes: A survey on the growth effects of exchange rate regimes," Working Papers 07.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Barisone, G. & Driver, R.L. & Wren-Lewis, S., 2000.
"Are Our FEERs Justified?,"
0002, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
- Ronald MacDonald, 2001.
"Modelling the long-run real effective exchange rate of the New Zealand Dollar,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2002/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long-run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December.
- Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
- Broda, Christian, 2006. "Exchange rate regimes and national price levels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 52-81, September.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
- Kakkar, Vikas, 2001. "Long run real exchange rates: evidence from Mexico," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 79-85, July.
- de Mello, L. Jr. & Carneiro, F. G., 1997. "The long-run behavior of exchange rates in Brazil, Chile and Argentina: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 37-48.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:34:y:2013:i:c:p:5-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.