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Exchange rate regime, real misalignment and currency crises

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  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Mallick, Sushanta

Abstract

Based on 69 sample countries, this paper examines the effect of macroeconomic fundamentals on real effective exchange rates (REER) in these sample countries. Using the misalignment of actual REER from its equilibrium level, we have estimated the factors explaining the extent of currency over- or under-valuation. Overall, we find that the higher the flexibility of the currency regime, the lower is the misalignment. The estimates are robust to different sub-samples of countries. We then explore the impact of such misalignment on the probability of a currency crisis in the next period, indicating the extent to which misalignment could be used as a leading indicator of a potential crisis. This paper thus makes a new contribution to the debate on the choice of exchange rate regime by bringing together real exchange rate misalignment and currency crisis literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Exchange rate regime, real misalignment and currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 5-14.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:34:y:2013:i:c:p:5-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.017
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 713, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. José María Serena & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment?," BIS Working Papers 624, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:18-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Slimani, Slah & Ben allem, Khaoula, 2017. "Les déterminants du misalignement du taux de change réel : Analyse empirique pour le cas de la région MENA
      [Determinants of misalignment of the real exchange rate: An empirical analysis for the MEN
      ," MPRA Paper 81247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:82-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Caputo, Rodrigo, 2015. "Persistent real misalignments and the role of the exchange rate regime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 112-116.
    8. Farshid Pourshahabi & Nazar Dahmardeh, 2015. "Economic Sanctions, Speculative Attacks and Currency Crisis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 340-355, February.
    9. Kliber, Agata & Płuciennik, Piotr, 2017. "Euro or not? Vulnerability of Czech and Slovak economies to regional and international turmoil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-323.
    10. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2014: Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufschwung – aber Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(08), pages 03-64, April.
    11. Fidora, Michael & Giordano, Claire & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2108, European Central Bank.
    12. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    13. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2017. "Redistributive Innovation Policy, Inequality and Efficiency," CEGAP Working Papers 2017_02, Durham University Business School.
    14. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2016. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(4), pages 3-25, October-D.
    15. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:261-274 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate; Pooled time series regression; Real exchange rate misalignment; Currency crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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