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The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature

  • Reza Siregar

The aim of this paper is to review and examine a collection of 'most commonly applied' theoretical and empirical models of equilibrium exchange rate. The presentation on each model starts with an introduction of core theoretical frameworks. It will then be followed by discussions on relevant empirical steps to estimate the equilibrium rate. The rest of the paper will focus on assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the model and how each relates to the other.

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This book is provided by South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre in its series Staff Papers with number sp81 and published in 2011.
ISBN: -
Handle: RePEc:sea:spaper:sp81
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  1. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1996. "Long-horizon exchange rate predictability?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," Working Paper Series 0085, European Central Bank.
  5. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
  6. Tybout, James, 1998. "Manufacuring firms in developing countries - how well do they do, and why?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1965, The World Bank.
  7. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Currency Board (Hong Kong) or Monitoring Band (Singapore)?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 538-556, December.
  8. Romain Duval, 2002. "What Do We Know About Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs Macroeconomic Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 382-403, December.
  9. Ronald MacDonald, 2001. "Modelling the long-run real effective exchange rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "Monetary-based models of the exchange rate: a panel perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, January.
  11. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in T ransition Economies: T aking Stock of the Issues," Working Papers 106, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  12. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Methodological Comparison of Beers and Feers," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  14. Reza Yamora Siregar, 1999. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Indonesia: theory and empirical evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 329-336.
  15. Glen, Jack D., 1992. "Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 147-166, August.
  16. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 33-74.
  18. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  19. Rahmatsyah, Teuku & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran & Siregar, Reza Y., 2002. "Exchange-rate volatility, trade and "fixing for life" in Thailand," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 445-470, December.
  20. Daniela Federici & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2002. "Endogenous Growth in an Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 499-518, December.
  21. Baillie, Richard T. & Pecchenino, Rowena A., 1991. "The search for equilibrium relationships in international finance: the case of the monetary model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 582-593, December.
  22. Richardson, J. David, 1978. "Some empirical evidence on commodity arbitrage and the law of one price," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-351, May.
  23. Berben, R-P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9814, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  24. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  25. Brunetti, Aymo & Kisunko, Gregory & Weder, Beatrice, 1997. "Institutional obstacles to doing business : region-by-region results from a worldwide survey of the private sector," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1759, The World Bank.
  26. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  27. Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs, 2001. "Tracking the Euro," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 298, OECD Publishing.
  28. Isard, Peter, 1977. "How Far Can We Push the "Law of One Price"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 942-48, December.
  29. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  30. Jose De Gregorio & Thomas Krueger & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Behavior of Nontradable Goods Prices in Europe; Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 93/45, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Lippert, Alston Flynn, 1997. "Internal Relative Price Stationarity in Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 195-203, May.
  32. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  33. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jér�me Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 404-436, December.
  34. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.
  35. Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
  36. David O. Cushman, 2000. "The failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 591-603, August.
  37. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
  38. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  39. Jerome L. Stein & K. Sauernheimer, 1995. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of Germany," Working Papers 95-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  40. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  41. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  42. Balázs Egert, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Estonia: Oil Shale, Tradable Goods, Regulated Prices and Other Culprits," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 259-286, 02.
  43. G. C. Lim, 2000. "Misalignment and Managed Exchange Rates; An Application to the Thai Baht," IMF Working Papers 00/63, International Monetary Fund.
  44. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
  45. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, December.
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