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The failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar

  • David O. Cushman

In this paper the validity of the monetary exchange rate model in the long run for the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange rate is examined. The primary test employed is the Johansen (1991) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration technique. The effects of dummy variables and lag specification on the statistical inference are considered, and Monte Carlo simulations based on the estimated parameters are employed. Despite the use of the longest data set yet for the Canadian case, no evidence is found in favour of the monetary exchange rate model using the Johansen procedures. This result is confirmed by several other cointegration procedures.

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Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 591-603

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:33:y:2000:i:3:p:591-603
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  1. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
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  5. Allan W. Gregory, 1991. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Working Papers 811, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
  7. Driskill, Robert A, 1981. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 357-71, April.
  8. Ronald MacDonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate; Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 92/34, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  10. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  12. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  13. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
  14. Harris, R I D, 1992. "Small Sample Testing for Unit Roots," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 615-25, November.
  15. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  16. Lucas, R.F. & Haug, A.A., 1992. "Long-Run Money Demand in Canada: In Search of Stability," Papers 92-4, Saskatchewan - Department of Economics.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  18. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1991. "The monetary approach to the exchange rate : Long-run relationships and coefficient restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 179-185, October.
  19. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  20. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  21. Georgios P. Kouretas, 1997. "Identifying Linear Restrictions on the Monetary Exchange Rate Model and the Uncovered Interest Parity: Cointegration Evidence from the Canadian-U.S. Dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 875-90, November.
  22. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  23. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  24. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
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