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Modelling the Long-run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar

  • Ronald MacDonald

In this paper we use the behavioural and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches to produce long-run equilibrium exchange rates for the effective real exchange rates of the New Zealand dollar. We demonstrate that a well founded measure of the equilibrium value of the dollar may be recovered from a relatively small set of fundamental variables and that this can be used to produce an assessment of the dollar in terms of periods of misalignment. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia 2002.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Australian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 41 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 519-537

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:41:y:2002:i:4:p:519-537
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  1. Hali J. Edison & B. Dianne Pauls, 1991. "Re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," International Finance Discussion Papers 408, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  3. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Methodological Comparison of Beers and Feers," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the Beer; A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Jun Nagayasu & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials; A Panel Study," IMF Working Papers 99/37, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  9. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  10. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April.
  12. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  14. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
  15. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-48, September.
  16. Campbell, John & Clarida, Richard, 1987. "The Dollar and Real Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 3221495, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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