Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
Uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements, although there is little consensus on why it fails. In contrast to previous studies, which have used relatively short-horizon data, we test UIP using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the G-7 countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP -- all the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to the zero coefficient implied by the random walk hypothesis. We then use a small macroeconomic model to explain the differences between the short- and long-horizon results. Regressions run on data generated by stochastic simulations replicate the important regularities in the actual data, including the sharp differences between short- and long-horizon parameters. In the short run from risk premium shocks in the face of endogenous monetary policy. In the long run, in contrast, exchange rate movements are driven by the "fundamentals," leading to a relationship between interest rates and exchange rates that is more consistent with UIP.
|Date of creation:||Nov 1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Meredith, Guy and Menzie D. Chinn. “Monetary Policy and Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity." IMF Staff Papers 51, 3 (November 2004): 409-430.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993.
"Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-44, June.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Menzie Chinn, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Ito, Takatoshi, 1989.
"On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 487-510, December.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "On the Consistency of Short-run and Long-run Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-52, November.
- Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August.
- Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
- Menzie Chinn & Jeffery Frankel, 1995. "More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests," International Finance 9508003, EconWPA.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993.
"On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Engel, 1995.
"The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ralph C. Bryant, . "The "Exchange Risk Premium," Uncovered Interest Parity, and the Treatment of Exchange Rates in Multicountry Macroeconomic Models," Discussion Papers 111, Brookings Institution International Economics.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 2005.
"Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1996.
"Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity,"
014, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-041/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 1992.
"Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 395-431, June.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
- Bilson, John F O, 1981.
"The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
- Juillard, Michel & Laxton, Douglas & McAdam, Peter & Pioro, Hope, 1998. "An algorithm competition: First-order iterations versus Newton-based techniques," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1291-1318, August.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1994.
"A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
- Longworth, David, 1981. "Testing the Efficiency of the Canadian-U.S. Exchange Market under the Assumption of no Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 43-49, March.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992.
"Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
- Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, June.
- Fletcher, Donna J & Taylor, Larry W, 1996. ""Swap" Covered Interest Parity in Long-Date Capital Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 530-38, August.
- Richard Meese, 1986. "Empirical assessment of foreign currency risk premiums," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 157-196.
- Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 759-70, November.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6797. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.