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The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors

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  • Clarida, Richard
  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

This paper challenges the widespread view that forward exchange premia contain little information regarding subsequent spot rate movements. Using weekly dollar/Deutschmark and dollar/sterling data, we show that spot and forward exchange rates are well represented by a vector error correction model and that the vector of forward premia form a basis for the cointegrating space. Dynamic forecasts indicate that the information in the forward premia can be used to reduce the root mean squared forecast error for the spot rate (relative to a random walk forecast) by at least 33% at a six-month horizon and by between 50% and 90% at a one-year horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Clarida, Richard & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors," CEPR Discussion Papers 773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David W.R. Gruen & Marianne C. Gizycki, 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is it Anchoring?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9307, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1993. "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastibility of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors," NBER Working Papers 4442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
    4. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
    5. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2815, The World Bank.
    6. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk under currency boards," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, December.
    7. Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-041/2, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Efficiency; Forecasting; Forward Exchange Rate; Information; Spot Exchange Rate;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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