Analysing the forward premium anomaly using a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression model
Several researchers have suggested that exchange rates may be characterized by nonlinear behaviour. This paper examines these nonlinearities and asymetries and estimates a Logistic Transition Regression (LSTR) of Fama Regression with the Risk Adjusted Forward Premia as transition variable. Results confirm the existence of nonlinear dynamics in the relationship between spot exchange rate differential and the forward premium for all the currencies of the sample and for all maturities (three and six-month maturities). Results confirm the insight into the presence of speculation barriers and transaction costs in the foreign exchange rate market that would explain, at least partially, the forward premium anomaly.
Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 26 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993.
"The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium,"
9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- John F. O. Bilson, 1980.
"The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis,"
NBER Working Papers
0474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 1999.
"The Forward Premium Puzzle: Different Tales from Developed and Emerging Economies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
- Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2005.
"The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
- Giorgio Valente & Mark Taylor & Lucio Sarno & Richard Clarida, 2004. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers wp04-13, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Leon, Hyginus & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006.
"Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
- Giorgio Valente & Gene L. Leon & Lucio Sarno, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity; An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 06/136, International Monetary Fund.
- Engel, Charles, 1996.
"The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006.
"Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
- Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996.
"Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000.
"Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Yangru Wu & Hua Zhang, 1996. "Asymmetry in forward exchange rate bias: A puzzling result," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 407-411, March.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
- Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-72, June.
- Scott Barnhart & Robert McNown & Myles Wallace, 2002. "Some answers to puzzles in testing unbiasedness in the foreign exchange market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 687-696.
- Skalin, Joakim, 1998. "Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregression using a parametric bootstrap," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 276, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 13 Dec 1998.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08f30042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.