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Determinants of Currency Risk Premiums

Author

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  • Carlson, J.A: Osler, C.L.

Abstract

The risk premium is a function of both the interest rate differential and the gap between the current exchange rate and its long-run equilibrium in a model of the foreign exchange market with both non-speculating traders and rational speculators. If the speculators have an alternative to specializing in exchange-rate speculation, then there should be no presumption that uncovered interest rate parity will hold even approximately with a long-run equilibrium number of speculators. Furthermore, when other traders respond to interest-rate differentials, the model can give rise to a negative relationship between the interest-rate differential and the subsequent change in the exchange rate, a phenomenon that is often evident in foreign exchange markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlson, J.A: Osler, C.L., 1998. "Determinants of Currency Risk Premiums," Papers 98-006, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:purkib:98-006
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    Cited by:

    1. Miksjuk Alexei, 2011. "Study the relation between monetary and exchange rate policy: The case of Belarus," EERC Working Paper Series 11/16e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    2. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Staff Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada.
    5. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis, 2016. "Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-3.
    6. Miksjuk Alexei, 2009. "Studying the Relation between the Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate in Belarus under the Speculative Motives Assumption," EERC Working Paper Series 09/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    7. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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