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Determinants of Currency Risk Premiums


  • Carlson, J.A: Osler, C.L.


The risk premium is a function of both the interest rate differential and the gap between the current exchange rate and its long-run equilibrium in a model of the foreign exchange market with both non-speculating traders and rational speculators. If the speculators have an alternative to specializing in exchange-rate speculation, then there should be no presumption that uncovered interest rate parity will hold even approximately with a long-run equilibrium number of speculators. Furthermore, when other traders respond to interest-rate differentials, the model can give rise to a negative relationship between the interest-rate differential and the subsequent change in the exchange rate, a phenomenon that is often evident in foreign exchange markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlson, J.A: Osler, C.L., 1998. "Determinants of Currency Risk Premiums," Papers 98-006, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:purkib:98-006

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System


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