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Determinants of current risk premiums

  • John A. Carlson
  • C. L. Osler

This paper presents a theoretical model of exchange-rate determination intended to address the forward premium puzzle. It also explains the empirical observation that risk premiums depend on interest differentials. The model's closed-form solution indicates that currency risk premiums depend on two factors: interest differentials and the current deviation of the exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium. If speculators have an alternative to exchange-rate speculation, then there is no presumption that uncovered interest parity holds even approximately in long-run equilibrium. The model is consistent with existing evidence suggesting that forward premiums are negatively related to rationally expected future exchange rate changes. New empirical evidence is provided in support of the model.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 70.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:70
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  1. Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1987. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," NBER Working Papers 2303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  5. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1992. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," NBER Working Papers 2914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December.
  7. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  8. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  9. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1686-1706, November.
  11. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
  12. Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  13. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521460477 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1985. "The Covariation of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 1749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Marston, Richard C., 1997. "Tests of three parity conditions: Distinguishing risk premia and systematic forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 285-303, April.
  16. Carlson, John A, 1998. "Risk Aversion, Foreign Exchange Speculation and Gambler's Ruin," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(259), pages 441-53, August.
  17. Driskill, Robert & McCafferty, Stephen, 1980. "Exchange-Rate Variability, Real and Monetary Shocks, and the Degree of Capital Mobility under Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 577-86, November.
  18. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521466004 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-60, November.
  20. Kenneth A. Froot, 1993. "Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number froo93-1, May.
  21. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  22. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W. & Mayers, David, 1990. "Large-block transactions, the speed of response, and temporary and permanent stock-price effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-95, July.
  23. Osler, C. L., 1998. "Short-term speculators and the puzzling behaviour of exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 37-57, June.
  24. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-44, June.
  25. Richard Meese, 1986. "Empirical assessment of foreign currency risk premiums," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 157-196.
  26. Blonigen, Bruce A, 1997. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 447-65, June.
  27. Hagiwara, May & Herce, Miguel A, 1999. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Volatility, Trading Volume and Interest Rate Differentials in a Model of Portfolio Selection," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 202-18, May.
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