IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/04-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization

Author

Listed:
  • Denise Côté
  • Christopher Graham

Abstract

Since the early 1980s, long-term government bond yields in the euro zone have declined, in line with those in other industrialized countries. In this paper, the authors examine the monetary and fiscal policies adopted by European countries on the path to Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), and assess how these policies, including the introduction of the common currency, have contributed to the convergence of national long-term government bond yields in the euro zone. The authors find evidence that increased harmonization of monetary and fiscal policies on the path to EMU contributed greatly to the convergence of long-term government bond yields in the euro zone. More importantly, their findings suggest that the convergence of national long-term government bond yields in the euro zone cannot be attributed primarily to the introduction of the common currency itself, since two control groups of other OECD countries experienced a similar convergence. The first control group consists of other European Union (EU) countries not included in EMU (Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom), and the second group includes other OECD countries that are members of neither EMU nor the EU (Australia, Canada, Norway, and Switzerland). The authors also find evidence that currency risk premiums declined gradually following the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty and were largely eliminated by the time the single currency was introduced in January 1999. These findings suggest that, in the context of integrated international financial markets, harmonization of sound monetary and fiscal policies across countries will cause national long-term bond yields to converge. Based on evidence from the euro zone, the adoption of a common currency will have, at most, a secondary effect on the convergence of national bond yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Staff Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp04-23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Lawrence Goldberg & James Lothian & John Okunev, 2003. "Has International Financial Integration Increased?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 299-317, July.
    6. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    7. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    8. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    9. Correia-Nunes, Jose & Stemitsiotis, Loukas, 1995. "Budget Deficit and Interest Rates: Is There a Link? International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 425-449, November.
    10. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-293, June.
    11. Richard Cebula, 2000. "Impact of budget deficits on ex post real long-term interest rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 177-179.
    12. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    13. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    14. Anne-Marie Brook, 2003. "Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates: Fiscal Policy and other Drivers," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 367, OECD Publishing.
    15. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    16. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-138, May.
    17. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, July.
    18. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    19. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    20. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in the European community," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 171-187, March.
    21. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    22. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Tiff Macklem & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, "undated". "GOVERNMENT DEBT AND DEFICITS IN CANADA: A Macro Simulation Analysis," Staff Working Papers 95-4, Bank of Canada.
    24. Adrian W. Throop, 1994. "International financial market integration and linkages of national interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-18.
    25. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    26. Philipp Hartmann & Angela Maddaloni & Simone Manganelli, 2003. "The Euro-area Financial System: Structure, Integration, and Policy Initiatives," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 180-213.
    27. Mitsuhiro Fukao & Masaharu Hanazaki, 1986. "Internationalisation of Financial Markets: Some Implications for Macroeconomic Policy and for the Allocation of Capital," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 37, OECD Publishing.
    28. Carl Gjersem, 2003. "Financial Market Integration in the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 368, OECD Publishing.
    29. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
    31. Boozer, Michael A., 1997. "Econometric Analysis of Panel DataBadi H. Baltagi Wiley, 1995," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 747-754, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Convergence patterns in sovereign bond yield spreads: Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-139.
    2. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Hoffmann Andreas, 2013. "The Euro as a Proxy for the Classical Gold Standard? Government Debt Financing and Political Commitment in Historical Perspective," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 41-61, November.
    4. Sebastian Missio, 2012. "Government bond market integration and the EMU: Correlation based evidence," Working Papers 125, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    5. Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2005. "Bond Market and Stock Market Integration in Europe," DNB Working Papers 060, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Lucjan T Orlowski & Anna Tsibulina, 2014. "Integration of Central and Eastern European and the Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions from the Global Financial Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 376-395, September.
    7. Andraz Grum, 2007. "Lessons from Nominal Convergence in Slovenia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 255-262.
    8. Julia Gray, 2009. "International Organization as a Seal of Approval: European Union Accession and Investor Risk," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 931-949, October.
    9. Patrick Leblond, 2006. "The Political Stability and Growth Pact is Dead: Long Live the Economic Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 969-990, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denise Côté & Doug Hostland, 1996. "An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada," Staff Working Papers 96-7, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jean-François Fillion, 1996. "L'endettement du Canada et ses effets sur les taux d'interet reels de long term," Staff Working Papers 96-14, Bank of Canada.
    3. Robert Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, "undated". "An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour," Staff Working Papers 94-8, Bank of Canada.
    4. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
    5. Robert Amano, "undated". "Empirical Evidence on the Cost of Adjustment and Dynamic Labour Demand," Staff Working Papers 95-3, Bank of Canada.
    6. Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal & Ali, Qamar & Ashfaq, Muhammad, 2018. "The nexus between greenhouse gas emission, electricity production, renewable energy and agriculture in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 437-451.
    7. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2006. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-Section Dependence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/5, European University Institute.
    8. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    9. Robert Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, "undated". "A Further Analysis of Exchange Rate Targeting in Canada," Staff Working Papers 94-2, Bank of Canada.
    10. Rybinski, Krzysztof, 1997. "Testing Integration of Macroeconomic Time Series in Transitional Socialist Economies. A Modification of Perron Test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 127-179.
    11. Swee-Lean Chan, 2002. "Responses of selected economic indicators to construction output shocks: the case of Singapore," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 523-533.
    12. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, 2002. "Was there Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5, pages 185-207, November.
    13. Iris Claus, 1997. "A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States," Staff Working Papers 97-20, Bank of Canada.
    14. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    15. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro, 2003. "Cointegration tests based on record counting statistics," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws036615, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
    17. Smetters, Kent, 1999. "Ricardian equivalence: long-run Leviathan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 395-421, September.
    18. Lin, Yingqian & Tu, Yundong, 2020. "Robust inference for spurious regressions and cointegrations involving processes moderately deviated from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 52-65.
    19. Chae-Deug Yi, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Ricardian Equivalence on Real Exchange Rate and Current Account: Korea," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 61-83.
    20. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; International topics;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.