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Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

Author

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  • John A Carlson
  • Christian M. Dahl
  • Carol L. Osler

    () (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

Recent research has revealed a wealth of information about the microeconomics of currency markets and thus the determination of exchange rates at short horizons. This information is valuable to us as scientists since, like evidence of macroeconomic regularities, it can provide critical guidance for designing exchange-rate models. This paper presents an optimizing model of short-run exchange-rate dynamics consistent with both the micro evidence and the macro evidence, the first such model of which we are aware. With respect to microeconomics, the model is consistent with the institutional structure of currency markets, it accurately reflects the constraints and objectives faced by the major participants, and it fits key stylized facts concerning returns and order flow. With respect to macroeconomics, the model is consistent with most of the major puzzles that have emerged under floating rates.

Suggested Citation

  • John A Carlson & Christian M. Dahl & Carol L. Osler, 2008. "Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2008-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2008-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2012. "When does uncovered interest parity hold?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 865-879.
    2. Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2011. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 523-558.
    3. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    4. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2010. "Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1170, October.
    5. Chang, Sanders S., 2013. "Can cross-country portfolio rebalancing give rise to forward bias in FX markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1079-1096.
    6. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy Yue, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    7. Carol Osler & Xuhang Wang, 2012. "The Microstructure of Currency Markets," Working Papers 49, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
    8. Ding, Liang & Ma, Jun, 2013. "Portfolio reallocation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3100-3124.
    9. Martin Grandes & Marcel Peter & Nicolas Pinaud, 2010. "Pricing the Currency Premium Under Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from South Africa," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(60), pages 7-52, October -.
    10. Geir H. Bjønnes & Carol L. Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2009. "Asymmetric information in the interbank foreign exchange market," Working Paper 2008/25, Norges Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange-rate dynamics; currency market microstructure;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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