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Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs

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  • Maurice J. Roche

    () (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

  • Michael J. Moore

    (Queen’s University Belfast, Northern Ireland)

Abstract

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rates disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habit persistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2007. "Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1750507, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1750507
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    Cited by:

    1. Pippenger, John, 2017. "Forward Bias, The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2ff194s2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    2. Breedon, Francis & Rime, Dagfinn & Vitale, Paolo, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Liu, Jingyi, 2008. "Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-07, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Kateryna Onishchenko, 2012. "Can a pure real business cycle model explain the real exchange rate: the case of Ukraine," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 111-135.
    5. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "Risk, Monetary Policy, and the Exchange Rate," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 247-309.
    6. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    7. Jingyi Liu, 2008. "Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?," ESE Discussion Papers 181, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    8. Andreas Stathopoulos, 2012. "Portfolio Home Bias and External Habit Formation," 2012 Meeting Papers 502, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Charles Engel, 2016. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 436-474, February.
    10. Martin D. D. Evans, 2017. "Exchange-Rate Dark Matter," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 4, pages 101-185 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. repec:bla:econom:v:84:y:2017:i:335:p:516-540 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016. "Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
    13. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
    14. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 69-96.
    16. Shehadeh, Ali & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "The Forward Premium Bias, Carry Trade Return and the Risks of Volatility and Liquidity," MPRA Paper 71709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2016. "Precautionary And Long Run Risks For An Open Economy," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 047, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2011. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: puzzling evidence from three emerging economies," Working Papers Series 259, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Pippenger, John, 2015. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles: The Role Of Monetary Policy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2cm6p186, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    20. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2012. "When does uncovered interest parity hold?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 865-879.
    21. De Paoli, Bianca & Sondergaard, Jens, 2009. "Foreign exchange rate risk in a small open economy," Bank of England working papers 365, Bank of England.
    22. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
    23. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2010. "For Rich or for Poor: When does Uncovered Interest Parity Hold?," Working Papers 015, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Puzzles; Forward Foreign Exchange; Habit Persistence;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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