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Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs

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  • Maurice J. Roche

    (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

  • Michael J. Moore

    (Queen’s University Belfast, Northern Ireland)

Abstract

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rates disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habit persistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2007. "Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1750507, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1750507
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Puzzles; Forward Foreign Exchange; Habit Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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