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Foreign exchange rate risk in a small open economy

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  • De Paoli, Bianca

    (Bank of England)

  • Sondergaard, Jens

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Resolving the forward premium puzzle requires a volatile foreign exchange rate risk premium that covaries negatively with the expected depreciation rate. Earlier work has shown how models featuring consumption habits can generate such premia when either trade costs or 'deep habits' are assumed. We show that as long as consumption habits are slow-moving and shocks are highly persistent, a standard small open endowment economy - without any additional features - can address the puzzle. Moreover endogenising the labour supply decision in the small open economy can improve the model's ability to match risk premia observations so long as it makes business cycles less synchronised.

Suggested Citation

  • De Paoli, Bianca & Sondergaard, Jens, 2009. "Foreign exchange rate risk in a small open economy," Bank of England working papers 365, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0365
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Vít Pošta, 2012. "Estimation of the Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Czech Foreign Exchange Market," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(1), pages 3-17.
    3. Ana Santacreu & Ilian Mihov, 2013. "Exchange rates as an instrument of monetary policy," 2013 Meeting Papers 773, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Yemba, Boniface & Kitenge, Erick & Tang, Biyan & Gaekwad, Neepa B., 2024. "Monetary policy in China: A Factor Augmented VAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 975-1008.
    5. Groth, Charlotta & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Macroeconomic stability and the real interest rate: a cross-country analysis," Discussion Papers 30, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    6. Heipertz, Jonas & Mihov, Ilian & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2022. "Managing macroeconomic fluctuations with flexible exchange rate targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

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