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Explaining Forward Exchange Bias...Intraday

Author

Listed:
  • Richard K. Lyons and Andrew K. Rose.

Abstract

Intraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the central bank's interest rate defense. In equilibrium, however, buyers of the vulnerable currency must be compensated on average with an intraday capital gain as long as no devaluation occurs. That is, currencies under attack should typically appreciate intraday. Using data on intraday exchange rate changes within the EMS, we find this prediction is borne out.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard K. Lyons and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "Explaining Forward Exchange Bias...Intraday," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-242, University of California at Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbrf:rpf-242
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    Cited by:

    1. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nina Boyarchenko & Lars C Larsen & Paul Whelan & Stefano Giglio, 2023. "The Overnight Drift," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(9), pages 3502-3547.
    4. Angelo Baglioni & Andrea Monticini, 2013. "Why Does the Interest Rate Decline Over the Day? Evidence from the Liquidity Crisis," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 175-186, October.
    5. Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July.
    6. Bianca De Paoli & Jens Sondergaard, 2009. "Foreign exchange rate risk in a small open economy," Bank of England working papers 365, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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