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Explaining Forward Exchange Bias...Intraday

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  • Richard K. Lyons and Andrew K. Rose.

Abstract

Intraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the central bank's interest rate defense. In equilibrium, however, buyers of the vulnerable currency must be compensated on average with an intraday capital gain as long as no devaluation occurs. That is, currencies under attack should typically appreciate intraday. Using data on intraday exchange rate changes within the EMS, we find this prediction is borne out.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard K. Lyons and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "Explaining Forward Exchange Bias...Intraday," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-242, University of California at Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbrf:rpf-242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelo Baglioni & Andrea Monticini, 2013. "Why Does the Interest Rate Decline Over the Day? Evidence from the Liquidity Crisis," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 175-186, October.
    2. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July.
    5. Boyarchenko, Nina & Larsen, Lars & Whelan, Paul, 2020. "The Overnight Drift," CEPR Discussion Papers 14462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. De Paoli, Bianca & Sondergaard, Jens, 2009. "Foreign exchange rate risk in a small open economy," Bank of England working papers 365, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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