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Why does the Interest Rate Decline Over the Day? Evidence from the Liquidity Crisis

  • Angelo Baglioni
  • Andrea Monticini

    ()

    (Catholic University, Milan, Italy)

We provide a simple model, able to explain why the overnight (ON) rate follows a downward intraday pattern, implicitly creating a positive intraday interest rate. While this normally reflects only some frictions, a liquidity crisis introduces a new component: the chance of an upward jump of the ON rate, which must be compensated by an intraday decline of the ON rate. By analyzing real time data for the e-MID interbank market, we show that the intraday rate has increased from a negligible level to a significant one after the start of the liquidity crisis in August 2007, and even more so since September 2008. The intraday rate is affected by the likelihood of a dry-up of the ON market, proxied by the 3M Euribor - Eonia swap spread. This evidence supports our model and it shows that a liquidity crisis impairs the ability of central banks to curb the market price of intraday liquidity, even by providing free daylight overdrafts. Such results have implications for the efficiency of the money market and of payment systems, as well as for the operational framework of central banks.

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File URL: http://www.dep.unige.it/RePEc/gea/wpaper/dwpo-4-nov2010.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Genoa, Research Doctorate in Public Economics in its series DEP - series of economic working papers with number 4/2010.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:gea:wpaper:4/2010
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  1. Antoine Martin & James McAndrews, 2007. "Liquidity-saving mechanisms," Staff Reports 282, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Angelini, Paolo, 2000. "Are Banks Risk Averse? Intraday Timing of Operations in the Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 54-73, February.
  3. Bech, Morten L. & Garratt, Rod, 2001. "The Intraday Liquidity Management Game," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt0m6035wg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
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  5. Freixas, X. & Martin, A. & Skeie, D., 2010. "Bank Liquidity, Interbank Markets, and Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper 2010-35S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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  7. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Tapking, Jens, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank.
  8. Angelo Baglioni, 2012. "Liquidity Crunch in the Interbank Market: Is it Credit or Liquidity Risk, or Both?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-18, April.
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  10. Antoine Martin, 2002. "Optimal pricing of intra-day liquidity," Research Working Paper RWP 02-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Baglioni, Angelo & Monticini, Andrea, 2010. "The intraday interest rate under a liquidity crisis: The case of August 2007," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 198-200, May.
  12. Mills Jr., David C. & Nesmith, Travis D., 2008. "Risk and concentration in payment and securities settlement systems," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 542-553, April.
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  17. Van Hoose, David D., 1991. "Bank behavior, interest rate determination, and monetary policy in a financial system with an intraday federal funds market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 343-365, April.
  18. James McAndrews & Samira Rajan, 2000. "The timing and funding of Fedwire funds transfers," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 17-32.
  19. Antoine Martin & James McAndrews, 2008. "An economic analysis of liquidity-saving mechanisms," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 25-39.
  20. Jeannette Müller, 2006. "Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 37-60, February.
  21. Angelo Baglioni & Andrea Monticini, 2008. "The Intraday Price of Money: Evidence from the e-MID Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1533-1540, October.
  22. Flannery, Mark J, 1996. "Financial Crises, Payment System Problems, and Discount Window Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 804-24, November.
  23. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2010. "Liquidity, Bank Runs, and Bailouts: Spillover Effects During the Northern Rock Episode," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 83-98, June.
  24. Davidson, James & Monticini, Andrea & Peel, David, 2007. "Implementing the wild bootstrap using a two-point distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 309-315, September.
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