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Why does the Interest Rate Decline Over the Day? Evidence from the Liquidity Crisis

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  • Angelo Baglioni
  • Andrea Monticini

    (Catholic University, Milan, Italy)

Abstract

We provide a simple model, able to explain why the overnight (ON) rate follows a downward intraday pattern, implicitly creating a positive intraday interest rate. While this normally reflects only some frictions, a liquidity crisis introduces a new component: the chance of an upward jump of the ON rate, which must be compensated by an intraday decline of the ON rate. By analyzing real time data for the e-MID interbank market, we show that the intraday rate has increased from a negligible level to a significant one after the start of the liquidity crisis in August 2007, and even more so since September 2008. The intraday rate is affected by the likelihood of a dry-up of the ON market, proxied by the 3M Euribor - Eonia swap spread. This evidence supports our model and it shows that a liquidity crisis impairs the ability of central banks to curb the market price of intraday liquidity, even by providing free daylight overdrafts. Such results have implications for the efficiency of the money market and of payment systems, as well as for the operational framework of central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelo Baglioni & Andrea Monticini, 2010. "Why does the Interest Rate Decline Over the Day? Evidence from the Liquidity Crisis," DEP - series of economic working papers 4/2010, University of Genoa, Research Doctorate in Public Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:gea:wpaper:4/2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anastasios Demertzidis & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2021. "Empirical Estimation of Intraday Yield Curves on the Italian Interbank Credit Market e-MID," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Dufour, Alfonso & Marra, Miriam & Sangiorgi, Ivan, 2019. "Determinants of intraday dynamics and collateral selection in centrally cleared and bilateral repos," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
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    4. Christian Pfister, 2018. "(Real-)Time Is Money," Working papers 675, Banque de France.
    5. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Anastasios Demertzidis, 2018. "Comparing different methods for the estimation of interbank intraday yield curves," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201839, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Monticini, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 304-315.
    7. Puriya Abbassi & Falko Fecht & Johannes Tischer, 2017. "Variations in Market Liquidity and the Intraday Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 733-765, June.
    8. Burcu Kapar & Giulia Iori & Giampaolo Gabbi & Guido Germano, 2020. "Market microstructure, banks’ behaviour and interbank spreads: evidence after the crisis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 283-331, January.
    9. Anastasios Demertzidis, 2019. "Interbank transactions on the intraday frequency: -Different market states and the effects of the financial crisis-," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201932, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Abbassi, Puriya & Fecht, Falko & Tischer, Johannes, 2015. "The intraday interest rate: What's that?," Discussion Papers 24/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    : interbank market; intraday interest rate; financial crisis; liquidity risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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