IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mar/magkse/201839.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Comparing different methods for the estimation of interbank intraday yield curves

Author

Listed:
  • Vahidin Jeleskovic

    (University of Kassel)

  • Anastasios Demertzidis

    (University of Kassel)

Abstract

In this paper, we compare three different models, namely the Nelson- Siegel model, the Svensson model and the Diebold- Li model, for the estimation of an intraday yield curve on the Italian interbank credit market e-MID. Using a sample which spans from October 2005 until March 2010, the first important finding is that all three models are highly suitable for the estimation of an intraday yield curve providing superior empirical results when compared with similar works on e-MID. The second important finding is that, based on different in sample statistics, the Svensson model dominates the other two models before, during and after the financial crisis from 2007. Moreover, the Nelson- Siegel model seems to dominate the Diebold- Li model although these differences in goodness-of-fit between these two models may not be statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Vahidin Jeleskovic & Anastasios Demertzidis, 2018. "Comparing different methods for the estimation of interbank intraday yield curves," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201839, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201839
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/paper_2018/39-2018_jeleskovic.pdf
    File Function: First 201839
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Furfine, Craig, 2002. "The interbank market during a crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 809-820, May.
    2. Angelini, Paolo, 2000. "Are Banks Risk Averse? Intraday Timing of Operations in the Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 54-73, February.
    3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    4. Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2011. "Giving Flexibility to the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 27-49.
    5. Anastasios Demertzidis & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2016. "Empirical Estimation of Intraday Yield Curves on the Italian Interbank Credit Market e-MID," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201649, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 33-64, November.
    7. Nikolaus Hautsch & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2008. "Modelling High-Frequency Volatility and Liquidity Using Multiplicative Error Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-047, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    9. Angelo Baglioni & Andrea Monticini, 2013. "Why Does the Interest Rate Decline Over the Day? Evidence from the Liquidity Crisis," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 175-186, October.
    10. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    11. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2010. "Bayesian extensions to Diebold-Li term structure model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 342-350, December.
    12. Chen, Ying & Niu, Linlin, 2014. "Adaptive dynamic Nelson–Siegel term structure model with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 98-115.
    13. Chi-Sang Tam & Ip-Wing Yu, 2008. "Modelling sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 82-91.
    14. Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348, October.
    15. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    16. Angelini, Paolo, 2000. "Erratum [Are Banks Risk Averse? Intraday Timing of Operations in the Interbank Market]," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 442-442, August.
    17. Michiel De Pooter, 2007. "Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-043/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Merrouche, Ouarda & Schanz, Jochen, 2010. "Banks' intraday liquidity management during operational outages: Theory and evidence from the UK payment system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 314-323, February.
    20. Attila Csajbók, 1998. "Zero-coupon yield curve estimation from a central bank perspective," MNB Working Papers 1998/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    21. Iori, G. & Kapar, B. & Olmo, J., 2012. "The Cross-Section of Interbank Rates: A Nonparametric Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 12/03, Department of Economics, City University London.
    22. Andrew Clare & Ilias Lekkos, 2000. "An analysis of the relationship between international bond markets," Bank of England working papers 123, Bank of England.
    23. Bernadell, Carlos & Coche, Joachim & Nyholm, Ken, 2005. "Yield curve prediction for the strategic investor," Working Paper Series 472, European Central Bank.
    24. Puriya Abbassi & Falko Fecht & Johannes Tischer, 2017. "Variations in Market Liquidity and the Intraday Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 733-765, June.
    25. Burcu Kapar & Giulia Iori & Giampaolo Gabbi & Guido Germano, 2020. "Market microstructure, banks’ behaviour and interbank spreads: evidence after the crisis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 283-331, January.
    26. Baglioni, Angelo & Monticini, Andrea, 2010. "The intraday interest rate under a liquidity crisis: The case of August 2007," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 198-200, May.
    27. Angelo Baglioni & Andrea Monticini, 2008. "The Intraday Price of Money: Evidence from the e‐MID Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1533-1540, October.
    28. Schich, Sebastian T., 1997. "Estimating the German term structure," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1997,04e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Ganchev, Alexander, 2009. "Modeling the yield curve of spot interest rates under the conditions in Bulgaria," MPRA Paper 70048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Nobili & Cristina Picillo, 2011. "The Interbank Market after August 2007: What Has Changed, and Why?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 923-958, August.
    31. Gabbi, G. & Germano, G. & Hatzopoulos, V. & Iori, G. & Politi, M., 2012. "Market microstructure, bank's behaviour and interbank spreads," Working Papers 12/06, Department of Economics, City University London.
    32. Niels S. GrØnborg & Asger Lunde, 2016. "Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson‐Siegel Model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 153-173, February.
    33. Jurgilas, Marius & Žikeš, Filip, 2014. "Implicit intraday interest rate in the UK unsecured overnight money market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 232-254.
    34. Furfine, Craig H, 2001. "Banks as Monitors of Other Banks: Evidence from the Overnight Federal Funds Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 33-57, January.
    35. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    36. Ioannides, Michalis, 2003. "A comparison of yield curve estimation techniques using UK data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
    37. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anastasios Demertzidis, 2019. "Interbank transactions on the intraday frequency: -Different market states and the effects of the financial crisis-," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201932, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anastasios Demertzidis & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2021. "Empirical Estimation of Intraday Yield Curves on the Italian Interbank Credit Market e-MID," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Anastasios Demertzidis, 2019. "Interbank transactions on the intraday frequency: -Different market states and the effects of the financial crisis-," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201932, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Aryo Sasongko & Cynthia Afriani Utama & Buddi Wibowo & Zaäfri Ananto Husodo, 2019. "Modifying Hybrid Optimisation Algorithms to Construct Spot Term Structure of Interest Rates and Proposing a Standardised Assessment," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 957-1003, October.
    4. Gaus, Eric & Sinha, Arunima, 2018. "What does the yield curve imply about investor expectations?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 248-265.
    5. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    6. Monticini, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 304-315.
    7. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    8. Emrah Ahi & Vedat Akgiray & Emrah Sener, 2018. "Robust term structure estimation in developed and emerging markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 23-49, January.
    9. repec:ctc:serie1:def10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dufour, Alfonso & Marra, Miriam & Sangiorgi, Ivan, 2019. "Determinants of intraday dynamics and collateral selection in centrally cleared and bilateral repos," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Christian Pfister, 2018. "(Real-)Time Is Money," Working papers 675, Banque de France.
    12. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    13. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
    14. repec:jss:jstsof:36:i01 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Abbassi, Puriya & Fecht, Falko & Tischer, Johannes, 2015. "The intraday interest rate: What's that?," Discussion Papers 24/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 33-64, November.
    17. Puriya Abbassi & Falko Fecht & Johannes Tischer, 2017. "Variations in Market Liquidity and the Intraday Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 733-765, June.
    18. Erhard RESCHENHOFER & Thomas STARK, 2019. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Dynamic Factors," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 101-113, March.
    19. Caio Almeida & Kym Ardison & Daniela Kubudi & Axel Simonsen & José Vicente, 2018. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 16(1), pages 1-33.
    20. Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2011. "Giving Flexibility to the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 27-49.
    21. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    22. Renata Tavanielli & Márcio Laurini, 2023. "Yield Curve Models with Regime Changes: An Analysis for the Brazilian Interest Rate Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interbank credit market; e-MID; intraday yield curve; Nelson-Siegel model; Svensson model; Diebold- Li model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201839. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernd Hayo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vamarde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.