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The Macroeconomic Determinants of the US Term-Structure during the Great Moderation

  • Alessia Paccagnini

The aim of this paper is to study how the macroeconomic impulses can affect the term structure during the Great Moderation. As novelty in the research strategy, we create a term-structure using three latent factors of the yield curve. A Nelson-Siegel Model is implemented to estimate the latent factors which correspond to the level, the slope, and the curvature of the yield curve. As policy implication, the interpolated term structure suggests us how all the macro shocks impact on the overall yield curve, even if the impact has a different magnitude across maturities.

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File URL: http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper274.pdf
File Function: First version, 2014
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Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 274.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: Jun 2014
Date of revision: Jun 2014
Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:274
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  1. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Hördahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Working Paper Series 0405, European Central Bank.
  4. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  5. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
  6. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "How did the financial crisis alter the correlations of U.S. yield spreads?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 362-385.
  7. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
  8. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2013. "High yield spreads, real economic activity, and the financial accelerator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 346-355.
  9. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  10. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 23, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  11. Charles R. Nelson & Andrew F. Siegel, 1986. "Long-Term Behavior of Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 1789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1997. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Research Working Paper 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  13. Charles L. Evans & David Marshall, 2001. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Working Paper Series WP-01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
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