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Rollover Risk and Market Freezes

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  • Gale, Douglas M
  • Acharya, Viral
  • Yorulmazer, Tanju

Abstract

We consider the debt capacity of a risky asset when debt is being rolled over and there is a liquidation cost in case of default. We show that debt capacity depends on how information about the quality of the asset is revealed. When the information structure is based on ?optimistic? expectations, the arrival of no news about the asset is good news; under this structure, debt capacity does not depend upon rollovers and liquidation cost, and is simply equal to expected cash flows from the asset. In contrast, when the information structure is based on ?pessimistic? expectations, no news about the asset is bad news; under this structure, debt capacity of the asset is decreasing in the liquidation cost and frequency of rollovers. In the limit, as the number of rollovers becomes unbounded, the debt capacity goes to zero even for an arbitrarily small default risk. Our model explains why markets for rollover debt, such as asset-backed commercial paper, may experience sudden freezes. The model also provides an explicit formula for the haircut in secured borrowing or repo transactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gale, Douglas M & Acharya, Viral & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2009. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," CEPR Discussion Papers 7122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7122
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset-backed commercial paper; Credit risk; Haircut; Liquidation cost; Repo; Secured borrowing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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