IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cmu/gsiawp/-1015907483.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Model Uncertainty and Liquidity

Author

Abstract

Extreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for derivative markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model. Asset pricing and trading, in these cases, are intrinsically model dependent. Moreover, observed behavior of traders and institutions suggests that attitudes toward ``model uncertainty'' may be qualitatively different than Savage rationality would suggest. For example, a large emphasis is placed on ``worst-case scenarios'' through the pervasive use of ``stress testing'' and ``value-at-risk'' calculations. In this paper we use Knightian uncertainty to describe model uncertainty, and use Choquet-expected-utility preferences to characterize investors aversion to this uncertainty. We show that an increase in model uncertainty can lead to a reduction in liquidity as measured by the bid-ask spread set by a monopoly market maker. In addition, the non-standard nature of hedging model uncertainty can lead to broader portfolio adjustment effects like ``flight to quality'' and ``contagion.''

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, "undated". "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," GSIA Working Papers 2001-E17, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:-1015907483
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sulawesi.tepper.cmu.edu/papers/Liquidity
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Myron S. Scholes, 2000. "Crisis and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 17-21, May.
    2. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907.
    3. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Larry G. Epstein, 2001. "Sharing Ambiguity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 45-50, May.
    5. Dow, James & Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro da Costa, 1992. "Uncertainty Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Optimal Choice of Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 197-204, January.
    6. David A. Marshall, 2001. "The crisis of 1998 and the role of the central bank," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 2-23.
    7. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    8. Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981. "Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March.
    9. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    10. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1-16.
    11. Grossman, Sanford J & Miller, Merton H, 1988. " Liquidity and Market Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 617-637, July.
    12. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
    13. M. Sbracia & Alessandro Prati, 2002. "Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 02/3, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
    15. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    16. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:-1015907483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Steve Spear). General contact details of provider: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.