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When Everyone Runs for the Exit

  • Lasse Pedersen

    (New York University, CEPR, and NBER)

The dangers of shouting “fire” in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 177-199

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:4:a:10
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  1. Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp580, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Lasse H. Pedersen & Markus Brunnermeier, 2004. "Predatory Trading," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 425, Econometric Society.
  3. Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Evaporating Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 17653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chenghuan Sean Chu & Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore, 2009. "Strategic Trading in Multiple Assets and the Effects on Market Volatiliy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 143-172, December.
  6. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
  7. Darrell Duffie & Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1865-1900, November.
  8. Huberman, Gur & Halka, Dominika, 2001. "Systematic Liquidity," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 161-78, Summer.
  9. Nicolae B. Garleanu & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2007. "Liquidity and Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 12887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2000. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm152, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
  11. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," NBER Working Papers 15040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2008. "Crashes and Recoveries in Illiquid Markets," NBER Working Papers 14119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 448, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Dimitri Vayanos, 2004. "Flight to Quality, Flight to Liquidity, and the Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 10327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Holmström, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1994. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds and the Real Sector," IDEI Working Papers 40, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  16. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
  17. Coughenour, Jay F. & Saad, Mohsen M., 2004. "Common market makers and commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 37-69, July.
  18. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  19. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
  20. Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 4718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Research 146, National Bank of Belgium.
  22. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, 08.
  23. Lasse Heje Pedersen & Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 215-220, May.
  24. Hasbrouck, Joel & Seppi, Duane J., 2001. "Common factors in prices, order flows, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 383-411, March.
  25. Bruce Ian Carlin & Miguel Sousa Lobo & S. Viswanathan, 2007. "Episodic Liquidity Crises: Cooperative and Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2235-2274, October.
  26. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  27. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
  29. Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  30. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
  31. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
  32. repec:clu:wpaper:0809-02 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
  34. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
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