IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pri/cepsud/275.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Micro-evidence from a System-wide Financial Meltdown: The German Crisis of 1931

Author

Listed:
  • Kristian Blickle

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Markus Brunnermeier

    (Princeton University)

  • Stephan Luck

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

This paper studies a major financial panic, the run on the German banking system in 1931, to distinguish between banking theories that view depositors as demanders of liquidity and those that view them as providers of discipline. Our empirical approach exploits the fact that the German Crisis of 1931 was system-wide with cross-sectional variation in deposit flows as well as bank distress and took place in absence of a deposit insurance scheme. We find that interbank deposit flows predict subsequent bank distress early on. In contrast, wholesale depositors are more likely to withdraw from distressed banks at later stages of the run and only after the interbank market has started to collapse. Retail deposits are—despite the absence of deposit insurance—largely stable. Our findings emphasize the heterogeneity in depositor roles, with discipline being best provided through the interbank market.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristian Blickle & Markus Brunnermeier & Stephan Luck, 2020. "Micro-evidence from a System-wide Financial Meltdown: The German Crisis of 1931," Working Papers 275, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  • Handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:275
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://gceps.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/275_Brunnermeier-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1116-1147, December.
    2. Postlewaite, Andrew & Vives, Xavier, 1987. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 485-491, June.
    3. Huberto M. Ennis & Todd Keister, 2009. "Bank Runs and Institutions: The Perils of Intervention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1588-1607, September.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    5. Schnabel, Isabel, 2004. "The German Twin Crisis of 1931," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 822-871, September.
    6. Acharya, Viral V. & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2013. "Securitization without risk transfer," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 515-536.
    7. Zhiguo He & Asaf Manela, 2016. "Information Acquisition in Rumor‐Based Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1113-1158, June.
    8. Schumacher, Liliana, 2000. "Bank runs and currency run in a system without a safety net: Argentina and the 'tequila' shock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 257-277, August.
    9. Rajkamal Iyer & Manju Puri, 2012. "Understanding Bank Runs: The Importance of Depositor-Bank Relationships and Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1414-1445, June.
    10. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    11. Mark Egan & Ali Hortaçsu & Gregor Matvos, 2017. "Deposit Competition and Financial Fragility: Evidence from the US Banking Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 169-216, January.
    12. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Dynamic Debt Runs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1799-1843.
    13. Ippolito, Filippo & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Sette, Enrico, 2016. "Double bank runs and liquidity risk management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 135-154.
    14. Uhlig, Harald, 2010. "A model of a systemic bank run," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 78-96, January.
    15. Fernando Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1251-1294, June.
    16. Doerr, Sebastian & Gissler, Stefan & Peydró, José-Luis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2022. "Financial crises and political radicalization: How failing banks paved Hitler’s path to power," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372.
    17. Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers, 2016. "Runs on Money Market Mutual Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2625-2657, September.
    18. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
    19. James Peck & Karl Shell, 2003. "Bank Portfolio Restrictions and Equilibrium Bank Runs," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000077, UCLA Department of Economics.
    20. Chari, V V & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1988. "Banking Panics, Information, and Rational Expectations Equilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 749-761, July.
    21. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José-Luis Peydró & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2018. "From finance to fascism," Economics Working Papers 1651, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2020.
    22. Calomiris, Charles W & Kahn, Charles M, 1991. "The Role of Demandable Debt in Structuring Optimal Banking Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 497-513, June.
    23. Christophe Pérignon & David Thesmar & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2018. "Wholesale Funding Dry‐Ups," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 575-617, April.
    24. Harold James, 1984. "The Causes of the German Banking Crisis of 1931," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 37(1), pages 68-87, February.
    25. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stéphane Verani, 2020. "Self-Fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the US Life Insurance Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3520-3569.
    26. Cormac O Grada & Morgan Kelly, 2000. "Market Contagion: Evidence from the Panics of 1854 and 1857," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1110-1124, December.
    27. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2001. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 287-327, April.
    28. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Martin Oehmke, 2013. "The Maturity Rat Race," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 483-521, April.
    29. Galofré-Vilà, Gregori & Meissner, Christopher M. & McKee, Martin & Stuckler, David, 2021. "Austerity and the Rise of the Nazi Party," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 81-113, March.
    30. Green, Edward J. & Lin, Ping, 2003. "Implementing efficient allocations in a model of financial intermediation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 1-23, March.
    31. Cooper, Russell & Ross, Thomas W., 1998. "Bank runs: Liquidity costs and investment distortions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 27-38, February.
    32. Daniel Covitz & Nellie Liang & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2013. "The Evolution of a Financial Crisis: Collapse of the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 815-848, June.
    33. Calomiris, Charles W & Mason, Joseph R, 1997. "Contagion and Bank Failures during the Great Depression: The June 1932 Chicago Banking Panic," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 863-883, December.
    34. Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-592, June.
    35. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2015. "Banking, Liquidity, and Bank Runs in an Infinite Horizon Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2011-2043, July.
    36. Christopher Martin & Manju Puri & Alexander Ufier, 2018. "Deposit Inflows and Outflows in Failing Banks: The Role of Deposit Insurance," NBER Working Papers 24589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Eugene N. White & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2003. "The panics of 1854 and 1857 : a view from the Emigration Industrial Savings Bank," Open Access publications 10197/438, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    38. Adam Copeland & Antoine Martin & Michael Walker, 2014. "Repo Runs: Evidence from the Tri-Party Repo Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2343-2380, December.
    39. Peter Temin, 1971. "The Beginning of the Depression in Germany," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 24(2), pages 240-248, May.
    40. Marcin Kacperczyk & Philipp Schnabl, 2013. "How Safe Are Money Market Funds?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 1073-1122.
    41. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 240-288.
    42. Anil K. Kashyap & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2017. "Optimal Bank Regulation in the Presence of Credit and Run Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    43. Doerr, Sebastian & Gissler, Stefan & Peydró, José-Luis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2022. "Financial crises and political radicalization: How failing banks paved Hitler’s path to power," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372.
    44. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    45. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 933-955, September.
    46. Rajkamal Iyer & Manju Puri & Nicholas Ryan, 2016. "A Tale of Two Runs: Depositor Responses to Bank Solvency Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2687-2726, December.
    47. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
    48. Uhlig, Harald, 2010. "A model of a systemic bank run," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 78-96, January.
    49. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    50. Saunders, Anthony & Wilson, Berry, 1996. "Contagious Bank Runs: Evidence from the 1929-1933 Period," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 409-423, October.
    51. James Peck & Karl Shell, 2003. "Equilibrium Bank Runs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 103-123, February.
    52. Gorton, Gary & Pennacchi, George, 1990. "Financial Intermediaries and Liquidity Creation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-71, March.
    53. Ó Gráda, Cormac & White, Eugene N., 2003. "The Panics of 1854 and 1857: A View from the Emigrant Industrial Savings Bank," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 213-240, March.
    54. Peter Temin, 2008. "The German crisis of 1931: evidence and tradition," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 2(1), pages 5-17, April.
    55. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Dmitry Orlov, 2014. "Sizing Up Repo," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2381-2417, December.
    56. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand–Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, June.
    57. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Bernard Salanie, 2000. "Testing for Asymmetric Information in Insurance Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 56-78, February.
    58. Eisenbach, Thomas M., 2017. "Rollover risk as market discipline: A two-sided inefficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 252-269.
    59. Xuewen Liu, 2016. "Interbank Market Freezes and Creditor Runs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1860-1910.
    60. Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Reflections on Northern Rock: The Bank Run That Heralded the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 101-119, Winter.
    61. Viral V. Acharya & Nada Mora, 2015. "A Crisis of Banks as Liquidity Providers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 1-43, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doerr, Sebastian & Gissler, Stefan & Peydró, José-Luis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2022. "Financial crises and political radicalization: How failing banks paved Hitler’s path to power," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372.
    2. Erica Jiang & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2020. "Which Banks are (Over) Levered? Insights from Shadow Banks and Uninsured Leverage," NBER Working Papers 26903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José-Luis Peydró & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2018. "From finance to fascism," Economics Working Papers 1651, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2020.
    4. Doerr, Sebastian & Gissler, Stefan & Peydró, José-Luis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2022. "Financial crises and political radicalization: How failing banks paved Hitler’s path to power," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kristian Blickle & Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stephan Luck, 2022. "Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail?," NBER Working Papers 29753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2022. "Financial Intermediation and the Economy," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2022-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    3. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    4. Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers, 2016. "Runs on Money Market Mutual Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2625-2657, September.
    5. Zhiguo He & Asaf Manela, 2016. "Information Acquisition in Rumor‐Based Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1113-1158, June.
    6. Ahnert, Toni & Martinez-Miera, David, 2021. "Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242348, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Emanuele Brancati & Marco Macchiavelli, 2015. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Pricing Default: Evidence from the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-79, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Xuewen Liu, 2023. "A Model of Systemic Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 731-793, April.
    9. Hubert J. Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2022. "Experimental bank runs," Chapters, in: Sascha Füllbrunn & Ernan Haruvy (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Finance, chapter 25, pages 347-361, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Hubert J. Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2021. "Experimental Bank Runs," ThE Papers 21/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    10. Qi Chen & Itay Goldstein & Zeqiong Huang & Rahul Vashishtha, 2020. "Liquidity Transformation and Fragility in the US Banking Sector," NBER Working Papers 27815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Brancati, Emanuele & Macchiavelli, Marco, 2019. "The information sensitivity of debt in good and bad times," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 99-112.
    12. Kiss, Hubert János & Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Rosa-Garcia, Alfonso, 2022. "Who withdraws first? Line formation during bank runs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. Carletti, Elena & De Marco, Filippo & Ioannidou, Vasso & Sette, Enrico, 2021. "Banks as patient lenders: Evidence from a tax reform," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 6-26.
    14. Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Runs on Money Market Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 9906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Rajkamal Iyer & Thais Jensen, & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2016. "The Run for Safety: Financial Fragility and Deposit Insurance," EPRU Working Paper Series 1602, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    16. Xavier Vives, 2014. "Strategic Complementarity, Fragility, and Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(12), pages 3547-3592.
    17. Assaf Razin & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "Review Of Theories of Financial Crises," 2012 Meeting Papers 214, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Schilling, Linda, 2017. "Optimal Forbearance of Bank Resolution," MPRA Paper 112409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Schroth, Enrique & Suarez, Gustavo A. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2014. "Dynamic debt runs and financial fragility: Evidence from the 2007 ABCP crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 164-189.
    20. Molyneux, Philip & Upreti, Vineet & Zhou, Tim, 2023. "Depositor market discipline: New evidence from selling failed banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Germany;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bobray Bordelon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.