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Self-fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Stephane Verani

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Borghan Narajabad

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Nathan Foley-Fisher

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

The interaction of worsening fundamentals and strategic complementarities among investors renders identification of self-fulfilling runs challenging. We propose a dynamic model to show how exogenous variation in firms’ liability structures can be exploited to obtain variation in the strength of strategic complementarities. Applying this identification strategy to puttable securities offered by U.S. life insurers, we find that 40 percent of the $18 billion run on life insurers by institutional investors during the summer of 2007 was due to self-fulfilling expectations. Our findings suggest that other contemporaneous runs in shadow banking by institutional investors may have had a self-fulfilling component.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephane Verani & Borghan Narajabad & Nathan Foley-Fisher, 2016. "Self-fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," 2016 Meeting Papers 414, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:414
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Gilson, Stuart C., 1994. "The collapse of First Executive Corporation junk bonds, adverse publicity, and the 'run on the bank' phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 287-336, December.
    2. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stephane Verani, 2016. "Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," NBER Working Papers 22774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bryant, John, 1980. "A model of reserves, bank runs, and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 335-344, December.
    4. Ferre Graeve & Alexei Karas, 2014. "Evaluating Theories Of Bank Runs With Heterogeneity Restrictions," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 969-996, August.
    5. Hubert Janos Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez‐Lara & Alfonso Rosa‐García, 2012. "On the Effects of Deposit Insurance and Observability on Bank Runs: An Experimental Study," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1651-1665, December.
    6. Garratt, Rod & Keister, Todd, 2009. "Bank runs as coordination failures: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 300-317, August.
    7. Nicola Cetorelli & Benjamin H. Mandel & Lindsay Mollineaux, 2012. "The evolution of banks and financial intermediation: framing the analysis," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-12.
    8. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
    9. Arifovic, Jasmina & Hua Jiang, Janet & Xu, Yiping, 2013. "Experimental evidence of bank runs as pure coordination failures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2446-2465.
    10. Schmidt, Lawrence & Timmermann, Allan G & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Runs on Money Market Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 9906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Taking the **Sock** out of FSOC
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-29 12:24:21

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stephane Verani, 2016. "Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," NBER Working Papers 22774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Divya Kirti, 2017. "When Gambling for Resurrection is Too Risky," IMF Working Papers 17/180, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Elena Mattana & Ettore Panetti, 2017. "The Welfare Costs of Self-Fulfilling Bank Runs," Working Papers REM 2017/17, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Bruno Sultanum, 2014. "Financial fragility and over-the-counter markets," 2014 Papers psu420, Job Market Papers.
    5. Ettore Panetti, 2016. "Bank Runs: Theories and Policy Applications," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. repec:fip:fedreq:00050 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 23365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Anna Paulson & Richard Rosen, 2016. "The Life Insurance Industry and Systemic Risk: A Bond Market Perspective," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 155-174, October.
    9. Frame, W. Scott, 2016. "The federal home loan bank system and U.S. housing finance," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. E. Panetti & LG Deidda, 2017. "Banks' Liquidity Management and Systemic Risk," Working Paper CRENoS 201705, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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