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Self-fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry

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Abstract

Is liquidity creation in shadow banking vulnerable to self-fulfilling runs? Investors typically decide to withdraw simultaneously, making it challenging to identify self-fulfilling runs. In this paper, we exploit the contractual structure of funding agreement-backed securities offered by U.S. life insurers to institutional investors. The contracts allow us to obtain variation in investors' expectations about other investors' actions that is plausibly orthogonal to changes in fundamentals. We find that a run on U.S. life insurers during the summer of 2007 was partly due to self-fulfilling expectations. Our findings suggest that other contemporaneous runs in shadow banking by institutional investors may have had a self-fulfilling component.

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  • Foley-Fisher, Nathan & Narajabad, Borghan N. & Verani, Stephane, 2015. "Self-fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-32
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stephane Verani, 2016. "Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," NBER Working Papers 22774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hubert Janos Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez‐Lara & Alfonso Rosa‐García, 2012. "On the Effects of Deposit Insurance and Observability on Bank Runs: An Experimental Study," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1651-1665, December.
    3. Garratt, Rod & Keister, Todd, 2009. "Bank runs as coordination failures: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 300-317, August.
    4. Nicola Cetorelli & Benjamin H. Mandel & Lindsay Mollineaux, 2012. "The evolution of banks and financial intermediation: framing the analysis," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-12.
    5. Schmidt, Lawrence & Timmermann, Allan G & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Runs on Money Market Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 9906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
    7. Arifovic, Jasmina & Hua Jiang, Janet & Xu, Yiping, 2013. "Experimental evidence of bank runs as pure coordination failures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2446-2465.
    8. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Gilson, Stuart C., 1994. "The collapse of First Executive Corporation junk bonds, adverse publicity, and the 'run on the bank' phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 287-336, December.
    9. Bryant, John, 1980. "A model of reserves, bank runs, and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 335-344, December.
    10. Ferre Graeve & Alexei Karas, 2014. "Evaluating Theories Of Bank Runs With Heterogeneity Restrictions," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 969-996, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frame, W. Scott, 2016. "The federal home loan bank system and U.S. housing finance," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 23365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Anna Paulson & Richard Rosen, 2016. "The Life Insurance Industry and Systemic Risk: A Bond Market Perspective," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 155-174, October.
    4. Divya Kirti, 2017. "When Gambling for Resurrection is Too Risky," IMF Working Papers 17/180, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stephane Verani, 2016. "Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," NBER Working Papers 22774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bruno Sultanum, 2014. "Financial fragility and over-the-counter markets," 2014 Papers psu420, Job Market Papers.
    7. Ettore Panetti, 2016. "Bank Runs: Theories and Policy Applications," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. E. Panetti & LG Deidda, 2017. "Banks' Liquidity Management and Systemic Risk," Working Paper CRENoS 201705, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    9. Elena Mattana & Ettore Panetti, 2017. "The Welfare Costs of Self-Fulfilling Bank Runs," Working Papers REM 2017/17, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. repec:fip:fedreq:00050 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow banking; funding agreement-backed securities; life insurance companies; self-fulfilling runs;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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