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Dynamic debt runs and financial fragility: Evidence from the 2007 ABCP crisis

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  • Schroth, Enrique
  • Suarez, Gustavo A.
  • Taylor, Lucian A.

Abstract

We use the 2007 asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) crisis as a laboratory to study the determinants of debt runs. Our model features dilution risk: maturing short-term lenders demand higher yields in compensation for being diluted by future lenders, making runs more likely. The model explains the observed tenfold increase in yield spreads leading to runs and the positive relation between yield spreads and future runs. Results from structural estimation show that runs are very sensitive to leverage, asset values, and asset liquidity, but less sensitive to the degree of maturity mismatch, the strength of guarantees, and asset volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Schroth, Enrique & Suarez, Gustavo A. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2014. "Dynamic debt runs and financial fragility: Evidence from the 2007 ABCP crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 164-189.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:112:y:2014:i:2:p:164-189
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.01.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruche, Max & Segura, Anatoli, 2017. "Debt maturity and the liquidity of secondary debt markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 599-613.
    2. Kozubovska, Mariolia, 2017. "The effect of US bank holding companies’ exposure to asset-backed commercial paper conduits on the information opacity and systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 530-545.
    3. Erwan Morellec & Boris Nikolov & Norman Schürhoff, 2018. "Agency Conflicts around the World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4232-4287.
    4. repec:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:3:p:455-469 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Chala, Alemu Tulu, 2018. "Refinancing Risk and Debt Maturity Choice during a Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2018:33, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:bla:eufman:v:23:y:2017:i:1:p:55-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hugonnier, Julien & Malamud, Semyon & Morellec, Erwan, 2015. "Credit market frictions and capital structure dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1130-1158.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Runs; Financial crises; Structural estimation; Asset-backed commercial paper;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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