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Austerity and the Rise of the Nazi party

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  • Gregori Galofré-Vilà
  • Christopher M. Meissner
  • Martin McKee
  • David Stuckler

Abstract

We study the link between fiscal austerity and Nazi electoral success. Voting data from a thousand districts and a hundred cities for four elections between 1930 and 1933 shows that areas more affected by austerity (spending cuts and tax increases) had relatively higher vote shares for the Nazi party. We also find that the localities with relatively high austerity experienced relatively high suffering (measured by mortality rates) and these areas’ electorates were more likely to vote for the Nazi party. Our findings are robust to a range of specifications including an instrumental variable strategy and a border-pair policy discontinuity design.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregori Galofré-Vilà & Christopher M. Meissner & Martin McKee & David Stuckler, 2017. "Austerity and the Rise of the Nazi party," NBER Working Papers 24106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24106
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    3. Kristian Blickle & Markus Brunnermeier & Stephan Luck, 2020. "Micro-evidence from a System-wide Financial Meltdown: The German Crisis of 1931," Working Papers 275, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
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    5. Adam, Marc C. & Jansson, Walter, 2019. "Credit constraints and the propagation of the Great Depression in Germany," Discussion Papers 2019/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José-Luis Peydró & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2018. "From finance to fascism," Economics Working Papers 1651, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2020.
    7. Gregori Galofré-Vilà & Martin McKee & David Stuckler, 2022. "Quantifying the mortality impact of the 1935 old-age assistance," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 62-77.
    8. Becker, Sascha O. & Fetzer, Thiemo, 2018. "Why an EU Referendum? Why in 2016?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 366, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    10. Panagiotis Artelaris & George Mavrommatis, 2021. "The role of economic and cultural changes in the rise of far‐right in Greece: A regional analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 353-369, April.
    11. Benito Arruñada & Matthias Krapf, 2019. "Religion and the European Union," International Economic Association Series, in: Jean-Paul Carvalho & Sriya Iyer & Jared Rubin (ed.), Advances in the Economics of Religion, chapter 0, pages 295-308, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2018. "Economic history and contemporary challenges to globalization," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _167, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Servaas Storm, 2021. "Labour's loss: Why macroeconomics matters," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(299), pages 249-285.
    14. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp, 2019. "Cultural attitudes, economic shocks and political radicalization," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 529-562, June.
    15. Carillo, Mario Francesco, 2018. "Fascistville: Mussolini's New Towns and the Persistence of Neo-Fascism," MPRA Paper 96236, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Oct 2019.
    16. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Klein, Mathias & Pessoa, Sofia, 2022. "The Political Costs of Austerity," Working Paper Series 418, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José‐Luis Peydró & Hans‐Joachim Voth, 2022. "Financial Crises and Political Radicalization: How Failing Banks Paved Hitler's Path to Power," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372, December.
    18. Gregori Galofre-Vila & Maria Gomez-Leon & David Stuckler, 2021. "A Lesson from History? The 1918 Inuenza pandemic and the rise of Italian Fascism: A cross-city quantitative and historical text qualitative analysis," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 2102, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    19. Giacomo Gabbuti, 2020. "A Noi! Income Inequality and Italian Fascism: Evidence from Labour and Top Income Shares," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _177, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Niklas Potrafke & Felix Roesel, 2022. "Online Versus Offline: Which Networks Spur Protests?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9969, CESifo.
    21. Gianluca Russo, 2018. "World War I and the Rise of Fascism in Italy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-341, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised May 2020.
    22. Fetzer, Thiemo, 2018. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 381, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    23. Győző Gyöngyösi & Emil Verner, 2022. "Financial Crisis, Creditor‐Debtor Conflict, and Populism," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2471-2523, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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