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The Mother of All Sudden Stops: Capital Flows and Reversals in Europe, 1919-32

Author

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  • Olivier Accominotti
  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

We present new data documenting European capital issues in major financial centers from 1919 to 1932. Push factors (conditions in international capital markets) perform better than pull factors (conditions in the borrowing countries) in explaining the surge and reversal in capital flows. In particular, the sharp increase in stock market volatility in the major financial centers at the end of the 1920s figured importantly in the decline in foreign lending. We draw parallels with Europe today.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Accominotti & Barry Eichengreen, 2013. "The Mother of All Sudden Stops: Capital Flows and Reversals in Europe, 1919-32," NBER Working Papers 19580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19580
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    Cited by:

    1. Schioppa, Claudio A. & Papadia, Andrea, 2015. "Foreign Debt and Secondary Markets: The Case of Interwar Germany," MPRA Paper 102863, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    2. Claudio Borio & Harold James & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective," Globalization Institute Working Papers 204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Jung, Naeun & Moch, Stephen & Mody, Ashoka, 2014. "The Eurozone Crisis: Phoenix Miracle or Lost Decade?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 288-308.
    4. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1904-1937, July.
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/78jqkj5bb48tgb9ah9a0kqhplu is not listed on IDEAS
    6. David le Bris, 2018. "What is a market crash?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(2), pages 480-505, May.
    7. Fratianni, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2017. "The tale of two great crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 5-31.
    8. Esteves, Rui & Eichengreen, Barry, 2019. "The Trials of the Trilemma: International Finance 1870-2017," CEPR Discussion Papers 13465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/59bp0vqv2b8k7a185vg2hert9v is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Probst, Julius, 2019. "Global real interest rate dynamics from the late 19th century to today," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 522-547.
    11. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," SciencePo Working papers hal-03391984, HAL.
    12. Qureshi, Mahvash S. & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2018. "Surges and reversals in capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 92-98.
    13. George Chouliarakis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2014. "Deja vu? The Greek crisis experience, the 2010s versus the 1930s. Lessons from history," Working Papers 176, Bank of Greece.
    14. Olivier Accominotti, 2019. "International banking and transmission of the 1931 financial crisis," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(1), pages 260-285, February.
    15. Macher, Flora, 2018. "The Austrian banking crisis of 1931: one bad apple spoils the whole bunch," Economic History Working Papers 87151, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    16. Terzi, Alessio, 2020. "Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Olivier Accominotti & Thilo N. H. Albers & Philipp Kessler & Kim Oosterlinck, 2024. "Sovereign Defaults and International Trade: Germany and its Creditors in the 1930s," Journal of Historical Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 459-500, February.
    18. Rakesh Mohan & Muneesh Kapur, 2014. "Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks," IMF Working Papers 2014/070, International Monetary Fund.
    19. O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2019. "Economic History and Contemporary Challenges to Globalization," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 356-382, June.
    20. Galofré-Vilà, Gregori & Meissner, Christopher M. & McKee, Martin & Stuckler, David, 2021. "Austerity and the Rise of the Nazi Party," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 81-113, March.
    21. Olivier ACCOMINOTTI & Marie BRIERE & Aurore BURIETZ & Kim OOSTERLINCK & Ariane SZAFARZ, 2020. "Did Globalization Kill Contagion?," Working Papers 2020-ACF-01, IESEG School of Management.
    22. Ho, Tai-kuang & Yeh, Kuo-chun, 2019. "Were capital flows the culprit in the Weimar economic crisis?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    23. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/78jqkj5bb48tgb9ah9a0kqhplu is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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