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The Mother of All Sudden Stops: Capital Flows and Reversals in Europe, 1919-32

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  • Olivier Accominotti
  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

We present new data documenting European capital issues in major financial centers from 1919 to 1932. Push factors (conditions in international capital markets) perform better than pull factors (conditions in the borrowing countries) in explaining the surge and reversal in capital flows. In particular, the sharp increase in stock market volatility in the major financial centers at the end of the 1920s figured importantly in the decline in foreign lending. We draw parallels with Europe today.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Accominotti & Barry Eichengreen, 2013. "The Mother of All Sudden Stops: Capital Flows and Reversals in Europe, 1919-32," NBER Working Papers 19580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19580
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    1. Carter,Susan B. & Gartner,Scott Sigmund & Haines,Michael R. & Olmstead,Alan L. & Sutch,Richard & Wri (ed.), 2006. "The Historical Statistics of the United States 5 Volume Hardback Set," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817912.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1904-1937, July.
    2. O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2019. "Economic History and Contemporary Challenges to Globalization," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 356-382, June.
    3. Claudio Borio & Harold James & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective," BIS Working Papers 457, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Schioppa, Claudio A. & Papadia, Andrea, 2015. "Foreign Debt and Secondary Markets: The Case of Interwar Germany," MPRA Paper 102863, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Jung, Naeun & Moch, Stephen & Mody, Ashoka, 2014. "The Eurozone Crisis: Phoenix Miracle or Lost Decade?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 288-308.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/78jqkj5bb48tgb9ah9a0kqhplu is not listed on IDEAS
    7. David le Bris, 2018. "What is a market crash?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(2), pages 480-505, May.
    8. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/78jqkj5bb48tgb9ah9a0kqhplu is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Fratianni, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2017. "The tale of two great crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 5-31.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/59bp0vqv2b8k7a185vg2hert9v is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Terzi, Alessio, 2020. "Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Esteves, Rui & Eichengreen, Barry, 2019. "The Trials of the Trilemma: International Finance 1870-2017," CEPR Discussion Papers 13465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Probst, Julius, 2019. "Global real interest rate dynamics from the late 19th century to today," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 522-547.
    14. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," SciencePo Working papers hal-03391984, HAL.
    15. Qureshi, Mahvash S. & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2018. "Surges and reversals in capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 92-98.
    16. George Chouliarakis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2014. "Deja vu? The Greek crisis experience, the 2010s versus the 1930s. Lessons from history," Working Papers 176, Bank of Greece.
    17. Olivier Accominotti, 2019. "International banking and transmission of the 1931 financial crisis," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(1), pages 260-285, February.
    18. Macher, Flora, 2018. "The Austrian banking crisis of 1931: one bad apple spoils the whole bunch," Economic History Working Papers 87151, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    19. Andrea Papadia & Claudio Schioppa, 2020. "Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany," Working Papers ECARES 2020-36, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Rakesh Mohan & Muneesh Kapur, 2014. "Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks," IMF Working Papers 2014/070, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Galofré-Vilà, Gregori & Meissner, Christopher M. & McKee, Martin & Stuckler, David, 2021. "Austerity and the Rise of the Nazi Party," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 81-113, March.
    22. Oosterlinck, Kim & Accominotti, Olivier & BRIERE, Marie & Burietz, Aurore & Szafarz, Ariane, 2020. "Did Globalization Kill Contagion?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Ho, Tai-kuang & Yeh, Kuo-chun, 2019. "Were capital flows the culprit in the Weimar economic crisis?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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