IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

What Does the 1930s’ Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone?

  • Crafts, Nicholas

    (University of Warwick)

If the Eurozone follows the precedent of the 1930s, it will not survive. The attractions of escaping from the gold standard then were massive and they point to a strategy of devalue and default for today’s crisis countries. A fully-federal Europe with a banking union and a fiscal union is the best solution to this problem but is politically infeasible. However, it may be possible to underpin the Euro by a ‘Bretton-Woods compromise’ that accepts a retreat from some aspects of deep economic integration since exit entails new risks of financial crisis that were not present eighty years ago.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/research/wpfeed/archive/142-2013_crafts.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Jane Snape)


Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE) in its series CAGE Online Working Paper Series with number 142.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:142
Contact details of provider: Postal: CV4 7AL COVENTRY
Phone: +44 (0) 2476 523202
Fax: +44 (0) 2476 523032
Web page: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. James Mitchell & Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 2011. "Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain," CESifo Working Paper Series 3602, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-61, April.
  3. Barry J. Eichengreen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," NBER Working Papers 1498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2005. "Great expectations and the end of the depression," Staff Reports 234, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Ben Crum, 2013. "Saving the Euro at the Cost of Democracy?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 614-630, 07.
  8. Richard E. Baldwin & Simon J. Evenett, 2012. "Beggar-thy-neighbour policies during the crisis era: causes, constraints, and lessons for maintaining open borders," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 211-234, SUMMER.
  9. Robert J. Gordon & Robert Krenn, 2010. "The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 16380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Spolaore, Enrico, 2013. "What Is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 141, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  11. Vinod K. Aggarwal & Simon J. Evenett, 2012. "Industrial policy choice during the crisis era," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 261-283, SUMMER.
  12. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133, March.
  13. Chadha, Jagjit S & Dimsdale, Nicholas H, 1999. "A Long View of Real Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 17-45, Summer.
  14. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
  15. Howson, Susan, 1980. "The Management of Sterling, 1932–1939," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 53-60, March.
  16. Balazs Egert, 2013. "The 90% Public Debt Threshold: The Rise and Fall of a Stylised Fact," CESifo Working Paper Series 4242, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  18. Reinhart, C. M., 2012. "The return of financial repression," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 37-48, April.
  19. Bernanke, Ben S & Carey, Kevin, 1996. "Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 853-83, August.
  20. de Bromhead, Alan & Eichengreen, Barry & O'Rourke, Kevin H., 2013. "Political Extremism in the 1920s and 1930s: Do German Lessons Generalize?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(02), pages 371-406, June.
  21. Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262195534, June.
  22. Richard Baldwin & Virginia DiNino & Lionel Fontagn� & Roberto A. De Santis & Daria Taglioni, 2008. "Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," European Economy - Economic Papers 321, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  23. Roger Middleton, 2010. "British monetary and fiscal policy in the 1930s," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 414-441, Autumn.
  24. Dani Rodrik, 2000. "How Far Will International Economic Integration Go?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 177-186, Winter.
  25. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Public Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 10/174, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk & Dawn Holland & Ehsan Khoman & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2008. "The impact of EMU on growth and employment," European Economy - Economic Papers 318, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  27. Eichengreen, Barry & Portes, Richard, 1990. "The Interwar Debt Crisis and Its Aftermath," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 5(1), pages 69-94, January.
  28. Ben Bemanke & Harold James, 1991. "The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 33-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Charles Goodhart, 2010. "The changing role of central banks," BIS Working Papers 326, Bank for International Settlements.
  30. Charles Goodhart, 2010. "The Changing Role of Central Banks," FMG Special Papers sp197, Financial Markets Group.
  31. Gehringer, Agnieszka, 2013. "Growth, productivity and capital accumulation: The effects of financial liberalization in the case of European integration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 291-309.
  32. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
  33. Broadberry, Stephen N, 1987. "Cheap Money and the Housing Boom in Interwar Britain: An Econometric Appraisal," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 55(4), pages 378-91, December.
  34. Grossman, Richard S., 1994. "The Shoe That Didn't Drop: Explaining Banking Stability During the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 654-682, September.
  35. Temin, Peter & Wigmore, Barrie A., 1990. "The end of one big deflation," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 483-502, October.
  36. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 2009. "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 15142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. S M Ali Abbas & Nazim Belhocine & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Mark Horton, 2011. "Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt—Evidence From a New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(4), pages 717-742, November.
  39. Douglas A. Irwin, 2010. "Did France Cause the Great Depression?," NBER Working Papers 16350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Eichengreen, Barry, 2013. "Currency war or international policy coordination?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 425-433.
  41. Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2013. "Policy Options to Durably Resolve Euro Area Imbalances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1035, OECD Publishing.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Snape)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.