IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The impact of EMU on growth and employment

  • Ray Barrell
  • Sylvia Gottschalk
  • Dawn Holland
  • Ehsan Khoman
  • Iana Liadze
  • Olga Pomerantz

This study addresses and evaluates the impacts of the introduction of the euro on both actual and potential output and employment. In order to achieve this, a descriptive and analytical examination of developments before and after the launch of the euro is undertaken, with comparisons drawn between countries that are EMU members and non-EMU members. There are several channels through which the euro may have affected growth and employment: greater transparency and its impact on competitiveness and the effectiveness of the single market; integration of financial markets, which may raise productivity; and a more stable macroeconomic environment, which affects risk and investment decisions. We analyse the impact of each of these channels on the drivers of growth, after controlling for factors such as workforce skills, research base, openness, demographic developments and structural reform on the evolution of output. The central result of our study is that EMU affects output growth directly and also promotes reductions in output and real effective exchange rate volatility and thereby influences the accumulation of productive capital. Many potential concerns preceding the launch of the euro seem to have been unfounded, and our work suggests that the effects of EMU that we observe have been beneficial for economic growth and employment overall. Our analysis suggests that the direct positive effects of EMU are likely to be larger in the core countries, despite their recent slow growth, and that EMU may lead to agglomeration of activities.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication12413_en.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 318.

as
in new window

Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0318
Contact details of provider: Postal: Coomunivcations Unit, B-1049 Bruxelles / Brussels
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms and Countries," NBER Working Papers 12216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Goldberg, Linda S. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," Working Papers 94-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  4. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
  5. Tamim Bayoumi & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Staff Reports 182, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1998. "Real Exchange Rates, Agglomerations, and Irreversibilities: Macroeconomic Policy and FDI in EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 152-67, Autumn.
  7. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Ranciere, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Scholarly Articles 12490419, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. repec:nsr:niesrd:289 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Gorg, Holger & Wakelin, Katherine, 2002. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on US Direct Investment," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(3), pages 380-97, June.
  10. Rachel Griffith & Stephen Redding & John Van Reenen, 2000. "Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0458, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  12. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
  13. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, . "Macroeconomic effects of regulation and deregulation in goods and labor markets," Working Papers 187, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  14. Sheppard, Kevin & Cappiello, Lorenzo & Engle, Robert F., 2003. "Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns," Working Paper Series 0204, European Central Bank.
  15. Bagella , Michele & Becchetti , Leonardo & Hasan , Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Research Discussion Papers 15/2004, Bank of Finland.
  16. Duval, Romain & Elmeskov, Jørgen, 2006. "The effects of EMU on structural reforms in labour and product markets," Working Paper Series 0596, European Central Bank.
  17. Pain, Nigel & Young, Garry, 2004. "The macroeconomic impact of UK withdrawal from the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 387-408, May.
  18. Petroulas, Pavlos, 2007. "The effect of the euro on foreign direct investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1468-1491, August.
  19. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
  20. Luca Ricci, 2006. "Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 197-219, April.
  21. John H. Dunning, 1997. "The European Internal Market Programme and Inbound Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 1-30, 03.
  22. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  23. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
  24. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
  25. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-86, November.
  26. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/166169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  27. Ray Barrell & Catherine Guillemineau & Dawn Holland, 2007. "Decomposing Growth in France, Germany and The United Kingdom Using Growth Accounting and Production Function Approaches," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 199(1), pages 99-113, January.
  28. Sylvia Gottschalk & R. Barrel & S.G. Hall, 2004. "Foreign direct investment and exchange rate uncertainty in imperfectly competitive industries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 39, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  29. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "The Impact of Short- and Long-run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 307-329, 06.
  30. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  31. John H. Dunning, 1997. "The European Internal Market Programme and Inbound Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 189-223, 06.
  32. Harald Badinger, 2007. "Has the EU's Single Market Programme Fostered Competition? Testing for a Decrease in Mark-up Ratios in EU Industries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 497-519, 08.
  33. Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
  34. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1999. "Domestic institutions, agglomerations and foreign direct investment in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 925-934, April.
  35. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  36. Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 207-261, 04.
  37. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.