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Adopting the Euro: a synthetic control approach

Author

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  • Gabriel, Ricardo Duque
  • Pessoa, Ana Sofia

Abstract

We investigate whether joining the European Monetary Union and losing the ability to set monetary policy affected the economic growth of 12 Eurozone countries. We use the synthetic control approach to create a counterfactual scenario for how each Eurozone country would have evolved without adopting the Euro. We let this matching algorithm determine which combination of other developed economies best resembles the pre-Euro path of twelve Eurozone economies. Our estimates suggest that there were some mild losers (France, Germany, Italy, and Portugal) and a clear winner (Ireland). Nevertheless, a GDP decomposition analysis suggests that the drivers of the economic gains and losses are heterogeneous.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Pessoa, Ana Sofia, 2020. "Adopting the Euro: a synthetic control approach," MPRA Paper 99391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary union; Eurozone; Macroeconomic performance; Synthetic control method; GDP decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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