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Global Crises and Populism: the Role of Eurozone Institutions

Author

Listed:
  • Luigi Guiso

    (EIEF and CEPR)

  • Helios Herrera

    (Warwick University)

  • Massimo Morelli

    (Bocconi University and CEPR)

  • Tommaso Sonno

    (London School of Economics, Université Catholique de Louvain and F.R.S-FNRS)

Abstract

Populist parties are likely to gain consensus when mainstream parties and status quo institutions fail to manage the shocks faced by their economies. Institutional constraints, which limit the possible actions in the face of shocks, result in poorer performance and frustration among voters who turn to populist movements. We rely on this logic to explain the different support of populist parties among European countries in response to the globalization shock and to the 2008-2011 financial and sovereign debt crisis. We predict a greater success of populist parties in response to these shocks in Euro zone countries, and our empirical analysis confirms this prediction. This is consistent with voters’ frustration for the greater inability of the Euro zone governments to react to difficult-to-manage globalization shocks and financial crises. Our evidence has implications for the speed of construction of political unions. A slow, staged process of political unification can expose the EU to a risk of political backlash if hard to manage shocks hit the economies during the integration process.

Suggested Citation

  • Luigi Guiso & Helios Herrera & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno, 2018. "Global Crises and Populism: the Role of Eurozone Institutions," EIEF Working Papers Series 1806, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:eie:wpaper:1806
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:48:y:2017:i:2017-02:p:309-400 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:sae:eeupol:v:18:y:2017:i:4:p:511-535 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Marco Celentani & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Klaus Desmet, 2004. "Endogenous Policy Leads to Inefficient Risk Sharing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 758-787, July.
    4. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    5. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    6. Luque, Jaime & Morelli, Massimo & Tavares, José, 2014. "A volatility-based theory of fiscal union desirability," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-11.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2018. "Inequality Aversion, Populism, and the Backlash Against Globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 13107, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Campos, Nauro F., 2019. "B for Brexit: A Survey of the Economics Academic Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12134, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Alessandro Borin & Elisa Macchi & Michele Mancini, 2018. "Eu transfers and euroscepticism: can’t buy me love?," ECON - Working Papers 289, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2018. "The Economic Determinants of the “Cultural Backlash”:Globalization and Attitudes in Western Europe," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1891, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2018. "Immigration and Nationalism: The Importance of Identity," CSEF Working Papers 511, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    6. Fernanda L. Lopez de Leon & Markus Bindemann, 2019. "Social Effects of the Vote of the Majority: A Field-Experiment on the Brexit-Vote," Studies in Economics 1905, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. Bellucci, Davide & Conzo, Pierluigi & Zotti, Roberto, 2019. "Perceived Immigration And Voting Behavior," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201915, University of Turin.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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