IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v112y2014icp1-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A volatility-based theory of fiscal union desirability

Author

Listed:
  • Luque, Jaime
  • Morelli, Massimo
  • Tavares, José

Abstract

Heterogeneous countries may rationally choose to form a currency union first, and a fiscal union later. We find, and illustrate empirically for the EMU countries, reasonable volatility conditions under which this sequencing in the deepening process is indeed rationalizable. Changes in the distribution of expected income shocks require a reassignment of political weights to restore unanimous support for an added fiscal dimension. The bargaining space depends on countries' relative income, size, and cross correlation of shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Luque, Jaime & Morelli, Massimo & Tavares, José, 2014. "A volatility-based theory of fiscal union desirability," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:112:y:2014:i:c:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.01.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272714000115
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.01.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guiso, Luigi & Morelli, Massimo & Herrera, Helios, 2013. "A Cultural Clash View of the EU Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore, 1997. "On the Number and Size of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1027-1056.
    3. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
    4. Bent E. S�rensen & Oved Yosha, 1998. "International Risk Sharing and European Monetary Unification," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 327, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2002. "Currency Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 409-436.
    6. Marco Celentani & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Klaus Desmet, 2004. "Endogenous Policy Leads to Inefficient Risk Sharing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 758-787, July.
    7. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 12, pages 297-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1998. "Economic Risk and Political Risk in Fiscal Unions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 989-1008, July.
    9. Casella, Alessandra, 1992. "Participation in a Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 847-863, September.
    10. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2013. "A Fiscal Union for the Euro: Some Lessons from History ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(3), pages 449-488, September.
    11. Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf, 2004. "Overturning Mundell: Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(2), pages 371-396.
    12. Nicolae Bârsan-Pipu & Ileana Tache, 2009. "An Analysis of EU Voting Procedures in the Enlargement Context," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(4), pages 393-408, November.
    13. Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 1998. "International risk sharing and European monetary unification," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 211-238, August.
    14. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2017. "Fiscal Unions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(12), pages 3788-3834, December.
    15. Enrico Spolaore, 2013. "What Is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 125-144, Summer.
    16. Michele Ruta, 2005. "Economic Theories of Political (Dis)integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Torsten Persson & Gerard Roland & Guido Tabellini, "undated". "The Theory of Fiscal Federalism: What Does it Mean for Europe?," Working Papers 101, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. Moshé Machover & Dan S. Felsenthal, 2001. "The Treaty of Nice and qualified majority voting," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 18(3), pages 431-464.
    19. Salvador Barbera & Matthew O. Jackson, 2004. "Choosing How to Choose: Self-Stable Majority Rules and Constitutions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 1011-1048.
    20. Patrick Bolton & Gérard Roland, 1997. "The Breakup of Nations: A Political Economy Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1057-1090.
    21. Roger H. Gordon, 1983. "An Optimal Taxation Approach to Fiscal Federalism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(4), pages 567-586.
    22. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Moral Hazard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 623-646, May.
    23. Shiller, Robert J., 1995. "Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 119-152.
    24. Luque Jaime & Taamouti Abderrahim, 2014. "Did the euro change the effect of fundamentals on growth and uncertainty?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-36, January.
    25. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2013. "The mutating euro area crisis: is the balance between "sceptics" and "advocates" shifting?," Occasional Paper Series 144, European Central Bank.
    26. Dixit, Avinash, 2000. "A Repeated Game Model of Monetary Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 759-780, October.
    27. Giovanni Maggi & Massimo Morelli, 2006. "Self-Enforcing Voting in International Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1137-1158, September.
    28. José Tavares & Jaime Luque & Massimo Morelli, 2012. "A Volatility-based Theory of Fiscal Union Formation," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/21, European University Institute.
    29. Salvador Barbera & Matthew O. Jackson, 2006. "On the Weights of Nations: Assigning Voting Weights in a Heterogeneous Union," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 317-339, April.
    30. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 4463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. William Fuchs & Francesco Lippi, 2006. "Monetary Union with Voluntary Participation -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 437-457.
    32. Casella, Alessandra, 1992. "On Markets and Clubs: Economic and Political Integration of Regions with Unequal Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 115-121, May.
    33. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2013. "The mutating euro area crisis: is the balance between "sceptics" and "advocates" shifting?," Occasional Paper Series 144, European Central Bank.
    34. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 979-1009, October.
    35. Ortuno-Ortin, Ignacio & Sempere, Jaume, 2006. "A theoretical model of nations, regions and fiscal integration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 132-157, January.
    36. Massimo Morelli, 2012. "Union Integration Paths," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 7-25, July-Sept.
    37. Enrico Spolaore, 2013. "What Is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 125-144, Summer.
    38. Matthias Sutter, 2000. "Fair Allocation and Re-Weighting of Votes and Voting Power in the EU before and after the Next Enlargement," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 12(4), pages 433-449, October.
    39. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, January.
    40. Wildasin, David E, 1991. "Income Redistribution in a Common Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 757-774, September.
    41. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2003. "Symbiosis of monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 235-247, August.
    42. Alessandra Casella, 2001. "The Role of Market Size in the Formation of Jurisdictions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 83-108.
    43. Yuliya Demyanyk & Charlotte Ostergaard & Bent E. Sorensen, 2008. "Risk sharing and portfolio allocation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 334, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    44. repec:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:393-408 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Massimo Morelli & Huanxing Yang & Lixin Ye, 2012. "Competitive Nonlinear Taxation and Constitutional Choice," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 142-175, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl, 2018. "An unemployment insurance scheme for the euro area? A comparison of different alternatives using microdata," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(1), pages 273-309, February.
    2. Luque, Jaime, 2022. "The repo channel of cross-border lending in the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    3. Fabrizio Balassone & Sandro Momigliano & Marzia Romanelli & Pietro Tommasino, 2018. "Just Round the Corner? Pros, Cons, and Implementation Issues of a Fiscal Union for the Euro Area," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1), pages 5-34.
    4. Luigi Guiso & Helios Herrera & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno, 2018. "Global Crises and Populism: the Role of Eurozone Institutions," EIEF Working Papers Series 1806, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2018.
    5. Guiso, Luigi & Herrera, Helios & Morelli, Massimo, 2016. "Cultural Differences and Institutional Integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 97-113.
    6. Lovleen Kushwah, 2020. "Country default in a monetary union," Working Papers 2020_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis, 2016. "Monetary Union, Even Higher Integration, or Back to National Currencies?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 62(2), pages 232-255.
    8. Étienne Farvaque & Florence Huart, 2016. "Drowned by Numbers? Designing an EU-wide Unemployment Insurance," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-33, CIRANO.
    9. Dolls, Mathias & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2021. "Attitudes towards euro area reforms: Evidence from a randomized survey experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. José Tavares, 2012. "Fiscal Union Consensus Design Under The Threat Of Autarky," 2012 Meeting Papers 202, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Fabrizio Balassone & Sandro Momigliano & Marzia Romanelli & Pietro Tommasino, 2018. "Just Round the Corner? Pros, Cons, and Implementation Issues of a Fiscal Union for the Euro Area," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1), pages 5-34.
    3. Picard, Pierre M. & Worrall, Tim, 2020. "Currency areas and voluntary transfers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Moyen, Stéphane & Stähler, Nikolai & Winkler, Fabian, 2019. "Optimal unemployment insurance and international risk sharing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 144-171.
    5. Hubert Kempf, 2021. "Fiscal Federalism in a Monetary Union: The No-Cooperation Pitfall," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 109-151, February.
    6. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The Euro Area Crisis: Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 683-710, September.
    7. Ortuno-Ortin, Ignacio & Sempere, Jaume, 2006. "A theoretical model of nations, regions and fiscal integration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 132-157, January.
    8. Libman, Alexander Mikhailovich, 2009. "Эндогенные Границы И Распределение Власти В Федерациях И Международных Сообществах [ENDOGENOUS BOUNDARIES AND DISTRIBUTION OF POWER In the Federation]," MPRA Paper 16473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Evers, Michael P., 2012. "Federal fiscal transfer rules in monetary unions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 507-525.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Ignazio Angeloni & Federico Etro, 2001. "The Political Economy of International Unions," NBER Working Papers 8645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Eiji Fujii, 2017. "Government Size, Trade Openness, and Output Volatility: A Case of fully Integrated Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 661-684, September.
    12. Evers, Michael P., 2015. "Fiscal federalism and monetary unions: A quantitative assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 59-75.
    13. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Political economics and public finance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1549-1659, Elsevier.
    14. Timothy J. Goodspeed, 2016. "Absorbing Shocks: National Rainy-Day Funds and Cross-Country Transfers in a Fiscal Union," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(4), pages 407-420, December.
    15. Thierry Madiès & Grégoire Rota-Grasiozi & Jean-Pierre Tranchant & Cyril Trépier, 2018. "The economics of secession: a review of legal, theoretical, and empirical aspects," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Joao L. M. Amador, 2000. "Fiscal federalism in continuous time stochastic economies," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp383, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    17. Michel Le Breton & Shlomo Weber, 2003. "The Art of Making Everybody Happy: How to Prevent a Secession," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-4.
    18. Boadway, Robin & Tremblay, Jean-François, 2010. "Mobility and Fiscal Imbalance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 63(4), pages 1023-1053, December.
    19. Luigi Guiso & Helios Herrera & Massimo Morelli, 2013. "A Cultural Clash View of the EU Crisis," EIEF Working Papers Series 1321, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jul 2013.
    20. Antonio Sciala' & Paolo Liberati, 2008. "The impact of economic openness on the vertical structure of the public sector," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0085, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal union; Common currency; Bargaining space; Voting weights; Heterogeneous countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:112:y:2014:i:c:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.