Did the Euro Change the Effect of Fundamentals on Growth and Uncertainty?
We present empirical evidence on whether the introduction of the euro has changed the effect of economic fundamentals on the growth rates of euro countries’ GDPpc and GDPpc volatility. We find that the effect of increments in debt on economic growth exhibits a structural break in 1999. A robustness check attributes this break to the financial crisis, however. There is also a statistically significant structural break in the impact of increments in government debt on economic uncertainty. This result is robust to a battery of robustness checks, including exclusion of the recent financial crisis period and comparison with non-euro European countries.
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- Eichengreen, Barry, 1990.
"Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Economics Working Papers 90-151, University of California at Berkeley.
- Barry Eichengreen, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," NBER Working Papers 3579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt40m5g6pp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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