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Can fiscal rules improve financial market access for developing countries?

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  • Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

A number of countries have introduced fiscal rules to deter fiscal profligacy, enhance the credibility of fiscal policy, and reduce borrowing costs. In this paper, we examine the outcome of fiscal rules in terms of improving financial market access for developing countries. We use entropy balancing and various propensity score matching. We find that the adoption of fiscal rules reduces sovereign bond spreads and increases sovereign debt ratings for a sample of 36 developing countries, which are part of the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBIG), for the period 1993-2014. We explain this finding by the effect of fiscal rules on the credibility of a country's fiscal policy: more credible governments are rewarded in the international financial markets by low sovereign bond spreads and high sovereign debt ratings. These results are robust to a wide set of alternative specifications. We also show that this favorable effect is sensitive to several country structural characteristics. Our findings confirm that the adoption and sound implementation of fiscal rules is an instrument for policy makers to improve developing countries’ financial market access.
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  • Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2020. "Can fiscal rules improve financial market access for developing countries?," Post-Print hal-02884580, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02884580
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103214
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    3. Wüste, Sebastian, 2022. "The logics of sovereign credit ratings in developed and developing countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
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    6. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2024. "The medium-term effects of fiscal policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
    8. Yacouba COULIBALY & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2022. "How Do Natural Resource – Backed Loans Affect the Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Countries? Empirical Evidence," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2937, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Philipp Weber & Laura A. Zell & Lars P. Feld & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2024. "Functionality of Fiscal Rules in a Low Interest Rate Environment – New Empirical Results for Swiss Cantons," CESifo Working Paper Series 11351, CESifo.
    10. Mihaela Onofrei & Tudorel Toader & Anca Florentina Vatamanu & Florin Oprea, 2021. "Impact of Governments’ Fiscal Behaviors on Public Finance Sustainability: A Comparative Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    11. Cruz Walteros, Nicolás, 2023. "Un canal de confianza: Reglas fiscales y riesgo soberano en economías emergentes," Documentos CEDE 20306, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    12. Capraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2023. "Fiscal Rules, Independent Fiscal Institutions, and Sovereign Risk," Working Papers of Romania Fiscal Council 230201, Romania Fiscal Council.
    13. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2022/0237, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Bao-We-Wal Bambe, 2021. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-03479679, HAL.
    15. Zhandos Ybrayev & Olzhas Kubenbayev & Akylzhan Baimagambetov, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules for a commodity-exporting economy: avoiding procyclical bias in Kazakhstan," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 271-294, May.
    16. Bao-We-Wal Bambe, 2023. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Post-Print hal-04227639, HAL.
    17. López-Herrera, Carmen & Cordero, José M. & Pedraja-Chaparro, Francisco & Polo, Cristina, 2023. "Fiscal rules and their influence on public sector efficiency," MPRA Paper 119018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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