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The medium-term effects of fiscal policy rules

Author

Listed:
  • Christos Chrysanthakopoulos

    (Alpha Bank and University of Patras)

  • Athanasios Tagkalakis

    (Bank of Greece, University of Patras and Hellenic Parliamentary Budget Office)

Abstract

Using a panel of 86 advanced and emerging market economies over the period 1985-2020, we investigate the short-to-medium term effects of fiscal policy rules on primary balances. We examine various types of rules (expenditure, revenue, debt, and budget balance rules) and various strict and flexible characteristics of fiscal rules. We find that the adoption of fiscal rules leads to a fiscal easing in the medium term, with the effects being more pronounced in emerging market versus advanced economies. We find an asymmetry in the workings of the fiscal rule over the business cycle. In times of expansion, the adoption of a rule leads to an a-cyclical or even procyclical response of the primary balance, while in times of recession fiscal rules induce a countercyclical impact response. Contrary to the baseline evidence, fiscal rules lead to a prudent fiscal policy response over the medium term when the debt ratio is high, the primary balance does not put the debt ratio on a declining path and the interest-growth rate differential is positive, as well as when the tax revenues generated by the tax system and tax administration are quite low relative to the stock of debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Chrysanthakopoulos & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2024. "The medium-term effects of fiscal policy rules," Working Papers 325, Bank of Greece.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:325
    DOI: 10.52903/wp2024325
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrián, Leandro & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Urrea, Ivan Leonardo & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Fiscal rules and economic cycles: Quality (always) Matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Heylen, Freddy & Mareels, Marthe & Van Langenhove, Christophe, 2024. "Long-run perspectives on r-g in OECD countries: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Antonio Fatas & Bram Gootjes & Joseph Mawejje, 2025. "Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Rules : Do Initial Conditions Matter ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11066, The World Bank.
    4. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Zoumenou, Jocelyne, 2025. "Do commitment and enforcement of fiscal rules enhance fiscal stability? Evidence from European Union countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Badru, Ruth & Calef, Andrea & Ilori, Ayobami E. & Omoju, Oluwasola E., 2025. "Fiscal consolidation and asymmetric macroeconomic effects: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Giovanni Carnazza & Francesco Tomasone, 2025. "A time-varying approach to assessing fiscal cyclicality: The impact of the European fiscal framework," Discussion Papers 2025/324, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Bouloumpasis, Panagiotis & Skotoris, Manolis & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2025. "The macroeconomic effects of public sector efficiency in advanced economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    8. Carnazza, Giovanni & Lanterna, Federica & Liberati, Paolo, 2025. "Does the European fiscal framework play a pivotal role in shaping fiscal cyclicality of the revenue side of the budget balance?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 2162-2179.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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