Never Forget the First Time: The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy

The paper studies the long term impact of corruption on trust towards institutions. Previous studies have demonstrated that exposure to corruption may lower institutional trust in the short run. Whether those short term effects translate into a persistent effect is not known. We study the onset of a corruption shock that took place in Italy between 1992 and 1994. Using recent data from the Trustlab project, coordinated by the OECD, we find that young first time voters exposed to the corruption scandal still today, 25 years later, exert significantly lower institutional trust. A follow up survey reveals that their exposure to corruption also affected their current voting behavior and political preferences. In particular, those young first time voters exposed to the corruption were more likely to vote for populist parties at the 2018 national elections and to have less favourable attitudes towards immigrants and refugees.